Then comes the practical “how it will play out” part: Arkansas voters are scheduled to cast ballots Tuesday for a wide range of nominations, including high-profile federal races and numerous state legislative and statewide offices. The Associated Press decision notes say the winners of the Tuesday primaries will go on to face November’s midterm elections, in a state that has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 2010.
On the Republican side, the AP notes focus first on U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton’s reelection bid, which is not uncontested. Cotton faces two primary opponents, and the AP decision notes say the Democratic nominee will be either Lewisville Mayor Ethan Dunbar or farmer and small business owner Hallie Shoffner.
The AP decision notes also describe Sarah Huckabee Sanders’s gubernatorial race as a different kind of contest: Sanders is seeking a second term in 2026 but is running unopposed in the primary. The notes say that Arkansas’s lieutenant governor, attorney general, auditor and treasurer also face no primary challengers in their reelection bids.
The Democratic nomination, meanwhile, includes a contest for the party’s effort to unseat Sanders in November. The AP decision notes say state Sen. Fred Love and magazine publisher Supha Xayprasith-Mays are seeking the Democratic nomination, and that Xayprasith-Mays previously ran in 2022 and placed fourth in the Democratic primary.
Beyond those headline races, the AP decision notes say contested primaries also are set for secretary of state, commissioner of state lands, two U.S. House seats, and more than two dozen state Senate and state House seats. The notes add that a nonpartisan state Supreme Court seat and special elections for state Senate District 26 and state House District 70 also are on the ballot.
Arkansas’s election mechanics for Tuesday’s primaries follow a runoff threshold. The AP decision notes say that if no candidate receives more than 50% of the primary vote, the top two finishers advance to a March 31 runoff. The AP says it will declare winners only when it determines there is no scenario in which a trailing candidate could close the gap, and that if a race has not been called, it will continue to cover developments such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory while explaining that a winner has not yet been declared.
Poll timing and voting participation are also part of the AP decision team’s planning. The notes say polls close at 7:30 p.m. local time, which is 8:30 p.m. ET. On party participation, the notes say Arkansas allows voters to register by party but does not require registration; instead, each party sets eligibility rules for its own primaries, and for 2026 the notes say state Democrats allow registered Republicans to vote in Democratic primaries. The notes also say Republicans last June adopted a rule barring registered Democrats from voting in Republican primaries.
For turnout context, the AP decision notes cite registration and past primary participation figures. The notes say Arkansas had about 1.8 million registered voters as of the November 2024 general election, with about 348,000 participating in the 2022 Republican primary and about 94,000 in the Democratic primary. The notes add that about 49% of Republican primary votes and about 52% of Democratic primary votes were cast before primary day, and they report that more than 61,000 Democratic primary ballots and about 125,500 Republican primary ballots already had been cast as of Saturday.
The notes also lay out expectations for how quickly returns may start moving as election-night count begins. The AP says that, in 2022’s GOP gubernatorial primary, it first reported results at 8:45 p.m. ET—about 15 minutes after polls closed—and that the last vote update that night came at 3:11 a.m. ET with about 98% of total votes counted. The AP decision notes say counties in previous elections tended to release all or nearly all results from early and absentee voting in the first vote update of the night, before any in-person Election Day results were released.
Finally, the AP decision notes underscore what Arkansas does and does not do in terms of recounts. The notes say Arkansas does not have automatic recounts, but candidates may request and pay for one, with costs refunded if the outcome changes. The notes also say the AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to alter the outcome.
When analysts look for patterns in Arkansas primaries, regional voting dynamics can matter just as much as candidate names. The AP decision notes say Pulaski County—home to Little Rock—has been more Democratic-friendly than many other areas of the state, citing that Vice President Kamala Harris posted her best performance in Arkansas in the 2024 presidential race there. The notes add that Pulaski’s voting can carry weight in Democratic contests, and they describe how earlier presidential primaries in the county reflected different statewide outcomes.