International oil markets, which were closed for the weekend, are heading into another week of volatile trading after U.S. and Israeli strikes raised uncertainty over whether Middle East oil supplies and infrastructure could be disrupted, according to energy-market analysis cited by the Associated Press.
In the run-up to next week’s trading, war-related risk has already pushed prices higher. Brent crude, the international benchmark, closed Friday at $72.87—described as a seven-month high—in a market reacting to the possibility that conflict could affect oil shipping and key regional assets.
The pricing picture is complicated by how different conflict scenarios would play out, AP reported. Earlier expectations around a conflict with Iran often assumed a quick price spike that would fade if attacks did not disrupt shipping and infrastructure, including Iranian pipelines and its Kharg island terminal.
Those assumptions shift, the reporting said, if attacks interrupt supplies or tanker traffic. In that broader risk scenario, the Strait of Hormuz becomes central because the strait is the route through which much of the region’s exports travel, and because disruption to tanker movement could amplify the effect from localized strikes to global supply constraints.
AP also pointed to Iran’s export footprint as a factor in how the market could reprice supply risk. Iran exports about 1.6 million barrels of oil per day, most of it going to China, where privately owned refineries—AP reported—may be less concerned about U.S. sanctions that limit Iran’s ability to sell oil elsewhere. If that supply flow were disrupted, the analysis said, Chinese buyers could seek alternative supplies in the global market, potentially adding pressure upward on prices.
The Strait of Hormuz carries an additional layer of uncertainty. The reporting said that about 20% of global oil supply passes through the strait each day and that Middle East exporters such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates send most of their exports through it. Analysts cited by AP said Iran has no incentive to close the strait because doing so would cut off its own exports and also hurt its only major customer, China.
In parallel, AP cited prewar projections from energy and policy analysts. Rystad Energy estimated that limited strikes involving Iran’s nuclear program and the Revolutionary Guard—if they avoid broader regime change or all-out war—could still cause oil prices to jump $5 to $10 based on fear alone. Another prewar scenario, attributed to Clayton Seigle of the Center for Strategic & International Studies, described a wider conflict in which Iranian disruption of tanker traffic could push crude above $90 per barrel and leave U.S. gas prices “well above” $3 per gallon.
The immediate market context for those projections, AP said, included an average U.S. gas price of $2.98 per gallon last week, according to the U.S. motoring club AAA.