Poll finds Americans fear Iran’s nuclear threat but doubt Trump’s war judgment

As the United States and Iran headed into another round of nuclear talks in Geneva, a new AP-NORC poll found that many Americans remain alarmed about Iran’s nuclear program. The poll also found that those worries do not translate into strong confidence in President Donald Trump’s judgment if conflict escalates, particularly among younger Republicans.

According to the survey, 48% of U.S. adults said they are “extremely” or “very” concerned that Iran’s nuclear program poses a direct threat to the United States, while about 3 in 10 said they are “moderately” concerned and about 2 in 10 said they are “not very” concerned or “not concerned at all.” The survey was conducted Feb. 19-23 as military tensions built in the Middle East between the United States and Iran.

The AP-NORC poll was released as the U.S. seeks a deal with Iran to limit the nuclear program and ensure it cannot develop nuclear weapons. Iran has said it is not pursuing nuclear weapons and has resisted U.S. demands that it halt uranium enrichment on its soil or hand over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.

The results also show that the public view of Iran is largely hostile, with 61% of U.S. adults describing Iran as an “enemy” of the United States. The poll found that roughly 3 in 10 said the countries are “not friendly, but not enemies,” and only about 1 in 10 said Iran and the United States are “friendly” or close allies.

When it comes to Trump, Americans in the poll expressed low confidence on questions tied to the use of military force abroad and relationships with adversaries. The AP-NORC survey found that only about 3 in 10 Americans said they have “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of trust in Trump’s judgment, while more than half said they trust him only “a little” or “not at all.”

Republicans were more likely than Democrats and independents to report trust in Trump. The poll found that about 6 in 10 Republicans said they have a high level of trust in him, compared with about 9 in 10 Democrats who reported low trust.

Even among Republicans, however, the poll showed a generational split. Younger Republicans under 45 were less likely than older Republicans to say they trust Trump “a great deal” or “quite a bit” when it comes to his use of military force. About half of younger Republicans said they trust him in that way, compared with about two-thirds of older Republicans.

The poll also found that concern about Iran’s nuclear program crosses party lines but is higher among Republicans. Most Republicans—56%—said they are “extremely” or “very” concerned, compared with 44% of Democrats.

It also found a generational difference in that concern. About one-third of Americans under 45 said they are highly concerned about Iran’s nuclear program, compared with about 6 in 10 Americans ages 45 and older. The survey also suggested that Americans’ baseline worries have not shifted much recently, citing alignment with an AP-NORC poll conducted in July 2025.

The AP story connected today’s nuclear diplomacy to earlier U.S. and Iranian moves, including Trump’s decision in 2018 to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear agreement, and noted that nuclear talks had been deadlocked for years afterward. It also cited Iran’s uranium enrichment history before the June war, when the AP reported that Iran had been enriching uranium up to 60% purity, described as a step away from weapons-grade levels and a level the AP said the United Nations nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, said belonged to Iran alone among countries that enrich to that degree.

In the run-up to the poll, the United States had also held two rounds of nuclear talks with Iran under Omani mediation, with a third round scheduled to begin Thursday. AP said similar talks last year broke down after Israel launched what became a 12-day war in June, and noted that both countries have signaled they are prepared for war if the talks fail.