Summary
As U.S. forces mass in the Middle East and Iran braces for possible strikes, Iran’s senior leaders have signaled they could respond even though the country lacks the scale and range of American military power. The reporting characterizes Iran’s situation as one in which its ability to match the United States is limited, but its options to impose costs on U.S. forces and partners could still be significant.
Iran’s leadership has warned of consequences extending beyond U.S. bases. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that Iran could sink American warships, and Iran’s U.N. ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani said in remarks carried in the reporting that “all bases, facilities and assets of the hostile force in the region” would be legitimate targets. The same reporting says top Iranian officials have also warned that a U.S. attack would spark broader regional conflict.
The picture is shaped by what happened in the 12-day war last June, when Israel carried out heavy strikes on Iran’s longer-range missile arsenals, as well as on Iran’s military leadership and nuclear program. That reporting says U.S. strikes also hit Iran’s main nuclear sites, and it notes that the full extent of damage and what has been rebuilt remains unknown. It also says Iran continued launching missiles and drones at Israel until the fighting stopped and sometimes managed to elude air defenses.
A key constraint on Iran’s response could be the damage from those earlier strikes, but the reporting highlights a potential asymmetry in Iran’s arsenal. Danny Citrinowicz, an Iran expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, said Iran’s shorter-range missile arsenal was largely untouched. In that assessment, the remaining shorter-range capabilities could make Iran more inclined to retaliate against tens of thousands of U.S. forces stationed across Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and elsewhere.
The reporting also ties Iran’s likely choices to its deterrence calculations and its sense of vulnerability after last year’s war and subsequent anti-government protests. It says Iran has hundreds of missiles capable of hitting Israel, according to Israel’s estimates, and it describes Iran as having far more shorter-range missiles suited to hitting U.S. forces in the region. It further says Iran has previously threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz and claimed it did so partially during military drills last week.
Beyond land-based missiles, the reporting says Iran is also looking at ways to improve its ability to strike at sea. It reports that Iranian officials have held quiet talks with China about purchasing anti-ship missiles that could boost Iran’s ability to target warships and choke sea routes. Officials with knowledge of the discussions, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly, said the outline of a deal was finalized after last year’s war, though no missiles have been delivered.
It also describes examples of Iranian action and escalation patterns in earlier phases of regional conflict. The reporting says Iran launched missiles at a U.S. base in Iraq after the killing of its top general in 2020, and it targeted a U.S. base in Qatar near the end of last year’s war. It says those strikes caused damage but no fatalities, with missile defenses and early warning systems responding.
The reporting links Iran’s deterrence posture to the possibility of responding to strikes on leadership. It says last year’s Israeli strikes killed several top generals and nuclear scientists, pointing to vulnerabilities that could affect planning. It also references comments by former President Donald Trump suggesting the United States knew where Khamenei was hiding, and it says Trump, fresh off capturing Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, may consider decapitation strikes aimed at Iran’s leadership.
Experts cited in the reporting say Iran likely has contingency plans if Khamenei were killed, without naming a single successor. Instead, the reporting says power could shift to a small committee until hostilities subsided. It also says experts believe Khamenei’s death would not in itself end the Islamic Republic, with power potentially passing later to an inner-circle member or to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.
Regional alliances are another focus in the reporting, because they can widen the conflict footprint even if the initial targets remain within Iran. American allies are described as clearly concerned about a regional war, and it says Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned of a heavy response to any Iranian attack on Israel. Arab Gulf states that host thousands of American troops are described as not wanting to be drawn in; Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates said they would not allow their airspace to be used.
An Arab Gulf diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity because the discussion involved closed-door talks, said regional leaders were talking to Iran and the United States to avert war and warned that escalation could include a spike in oil prices. The reporting also says Iran has allies and proxies, including Houthi rebels in Yemen, armed groups in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Palestinian territories, while also describing the “Axis of Resistance” as suffering major losses after Hamas’ October 2023 attack from Gaza.
The reporting places the military exchange within a wider nuclear and diplomatic timeline. It says after earlier threats over Iran’s killing of protesters, Trump shifted attention to Iran’s nuclear program, warning that “bad things” would happen if Iran did not agree to a deal, and it says indirect talks are set to continue in Geneva on Thursday. It also reports that Iran has long said its nuclear program is peaceful, while the United States and others have suspected Tehran intends to develop weapons, and it notes that after Trump scrapped a 2015 nuclear agreement, Iran ramped up uranium enrichment.
The reporting says Iran’s biggest nuclear sites were hit by U.S. and Israeli strikes and caused significant damage above ground, but it is unclear whether enriched uranium was moved elsewhere or buried underground. It reports that Iran says it has been unable to enrich since then, while also saying Iran has barred inspections. It adds that Iran is still believed to be far from a usable nuclear weapon, but it warns that radioactive material could pose risks in the event of widespread strikes.