Trump warns of possible Iran action as Pentagon builds Middle East force

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President Donald Trump has warned of possible military action against Iran if talks over Iran’s nuclear program break down, as the Pentagon assembles what the Associated Press described as the largest U.S. force in the Middle East in decades. The buildup includes aircraft carrier strike groups, additional warships and aircraft, and expanded air support, according to the report, which also cites experts weighing how any military moves could affect the likelihood of escalation.

Trump, according to the report, said it has “proven to be, over the years, not easy to make a meaningful deal with Iran, and we have to make a meaningful deal,” adding that “otherwise bad things happen.” The Associated Press report said Trump has repeatedly threatened to use force to push Iran to constrain its nuclear program and referenced the use of force in the context of earlier events in the region, including Iran’s crackdown on protests.

The military posture highlighted in the report centers on aircraft carriers and their air and missile defenses. The USS Abraham Lincoln and three guided-missile destroyers have been in the Arabian Sea since the end of January after being redirected from the South China Sea. The strike group brought roughly 5,700 additional service members to the region and bolstered a smaller force already there, which included destroyers and littoral combat ships.

Two weeks later, the report said, Trump ordered the deployment of another major carrier: the USS Gerald R. Ford. The Ford, along with three destroyers and more than 5,000 additional service members, was sent to the Middle East, a move that the report said would bring the Navy’s presence to at least 16 ships. It also contrasted that figure with a prior 11-ship fleet that had been stationed in the Caribbean Sea before the Ford’s departure.

In addition to the carrier deployments, the Associated Press reported a larger wave of U.S. air power and supporting logistics moving toward the region and bases in Europe. It said open-source analysts with the Military Air Tracking Alliance identified more than 100 fighter jets—described in the report as including F-35s, F-22s, F-15s and F-16s—heading toward the Middle East, alongside more than 100 fuel tankers and over 200 cargo planes in mid-February. The report said the group of about 30 analysts regularly analyzes military and government flight activity.

The report also described additional moves of aircraft to Israel, saying that U.S. official described as speaking on condition of anonymity said 12 F-22 stealth fighters were sent to a base in Israel. Satellite images from Planet Labs PBC, analyzed by the Associated Press, showed more than 50 aircraft at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, the report said, with nearly all likely tied to the American buildup. It added that Steffan Watkins, described as a researcher in Canada and a member of the Military Air Tracking Alliance, said he tracked early-warning support aircraft, including E-3s, moving toward a Saudi Arabia base to coordinate operations.

One point of comparison in the report involved previous U.S.-Iran military dynamics after strikes last year. The Associated Press said the buildup activity was similar to last year’s air-defense hardware movement, such as a Patriot missile system, ahead of an expected Iranian counterattack after June bombing of three key nuclear sites. It said Iran then launched more than a dozen missiles at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar days after the U.S. strikes.

Experts cited by the Associated Press said the current force package still has limits, and they emphasized the possibility of retaliation beyond drones and cruise missiles. Seth Jones, a defense expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said it is important to note that the U.S. is not deploying a major ground force. The report quoted Jones saying, in reference to Desert Storm and the 2003 Iraq invasion, that there are “substantial limits to the force package” as he described the difference between past troop deployments and current assets.

Michael O’Hanlon, a defense and foreign policy analyst at the Brookings Institution, said the buildup is technically the region’s largest since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, but the resources moved then dwarfed current assets. O’Hanlon also said the U.S. could use long-range B-2 bombers, as it did in June, if its goal were only to strike what is left of Iran’s nuclear program. The report said he characterized the forces now in place as designed both for attacking targets in Iran and for defending against retaliation.

Ali Vaez, an Iran expert at the International Crisis Group, warned that any attempt to limit the operation could be disrupted by how Iran responds. The Associated Press quoted him saying, “It will be very hard for the Trump administration to do a one-and-done kind of attack in Iran this time around.” Vaez added that “because the Iranians would respond in a way that would make all-out conflict inevitable,” according to the report.

Other cited analysts pointed to Iran’s view of the likely cycle of responses. Vaez said Iran was unlikely to respond in the limited way it did after the U.S. struck Iran’s nuclear facilities in June, when Iran had signaled timing and method in a way that the report said let American and Qatari air defense be ready. The Associated Press also quoted Vaez saying Iran concluded “the only way that they can stop this cycle is to draw blood and to inflict significant harm on the U.S. and Israel,” even if that comes “at a very high price for themselves,” as reported.

Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran program senior director at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the Associated Press that Iran is still believed to have ballistic missiles that can strike its enemies in the region. The report quoted Taleblu saying that he believed Iran may see ballistic missiles as deterrent to Trump, while in reality it could “be an inducement to move the president from a limited operation to a larger one.” It also said Taleblu’s think tank has long been critical of Iran and has been sanctioned by Tehran.

Sources in the report included Associated Press writer Jon Gambrell in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, who contributed to the story.