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Ahead of Tuesday’s Texas primary elections for a U.S. Senate seat, campaigns and outside political groups have poured record sums into advertising, according to AdImpact’s ad-tracking analysis. The advertising and “reserved advertising time” have topped $110 million as the parties prepare for a contest that Republicans and Democrats expect to shape the broader midterm fight for control of Congress.
On the Democratic side, the primary pits James Talarico against U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett. Heading into the vote, Talarico launched his final television ad before the primary, with an attack centered on immigration enforcement by the Trump administration; in the ad, Talarico describes U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement as “secret police.” The ad also contrasts with appeals Talarico has made to disaffected Republicans by discussing his Christian faith.
Fundraising has helped drive the tone and strategy of both campaigns. Talarico reported raising more than $21 million through last week, while Crockett reported nearly $8.6 million in fundraising; the report said most of Crockett’s money was transferred from her House campaign account after she entered the U.S. Senate race in December, roughly three months after Talarico began his run.
At a rally Tuesday in Tyler in northeastern Texas, an area President Donald Trump carried by a wide margin in 2024, Talarico said, “We can transform this broken political system.” The report also said Crockett has positioned herself as the bigger fighter, and that the tone of Talarico’s final ad differs from earlier appeals that emphasized his Christian faith.
Democrats have not won a U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1988, even as Republicans have continued to defend a seat tied to long-time Sen. John Cornyn. Cornyn’s primary challenge also runs through a crowded GOP field, with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt seeking to win the nomination and force a general-election rematch.
Spending in Texas has been fueled heavily by outside groups. AdImpact’s analysis found more than $75 million spent by groups not tied to the candidates, with the vast majority of that money going to the Republican side; spending by groups helping Cornyn’s bid for a fifth term approached $57 million so far. The analysis said a group called Texans for a Conservative Majority has dropped more than $22 million on ads aimed at Hunt, while Cornyn’s official campaign committee has raised more than $11 million and two other groups bearing his name have spent another $10 million.
Republicans expect Paxton to make a runoff despite what the report characterized as a low-key campaign until recently and his years of legal problems. Cornyn and Senate GOP leaders have argued that Republicans would likely need to spend tens of millions more to protect the seat if Paxton becomes the nominee, and GOP Sen. Tim Scott made the case Wednesday when he said, “It is a strong possibility we cannot hold Texas if John Cornyn is not our nominee.”
The report said Paxton’s campaign has also drawn attention through appearances and timing, including that Paxton was in Washington on Tuesday attending President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address as the guest of Texas Republican Rep. Troy Nehls. Meanwhile, the report cited Federal Election Commission filings showing Paxton’s campaign had raised about $6 million so far and Hunt about $2 million, while also noting that Hunt had about $3 million in his House campaign account when he entered the Senate race in October.
Outside money has become especially important to the Republican strategy as the fundraising totals diverge between candidates and supporting groups. The report said the Republican candidates’ collective campaign fundraising of $19 million does not match what Talarico’s campaign raised on its own, pointing to outside groups as a key factor for the GOP to retain the seat.
Talarico’s campaign also benefited from a media-driven fundraising boost, with the report saying it raised $2.5 million in the 24 hours after late-night host Stephen Colbert pulled an interview with him from Colbert’s nightly Feb. 16 broadcast, citing the demands of CBS lawyers. The report said contributions of less than $1,000 during that period do not have to be reported until after the primary.
On the Democratic campaign trail, the report said Crockett recently told supporters during a stop that when she ran for the Texas House in 2020, two years before winning her Dallas-area seat in Congress, she was outspent 5-to-1. Crockett said, “People said, ‘There’s no way she’s going to win,’” adding, “I show up, authentically me. That makes some people cringe, but the people are tired of politics as usual.”