The Pentagon’s buildup of U.S. warships and aircraft in the Middle East is unfolding as President Donald Trump warns Iran about the possibility of military action tied to negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, according to reporting from the Associated Press. The plan, AP said, includes two aircraft carrier strike groups and a broader flow of aircraft into the region and nearby bases that officials and analysts describe as both offensive and defensive.
Trump, AP reported, has said it has been “not easy to make a meaningful deal with Iran,” and he warned that failing to reach a “meaningful deal” could lead to “bad things.” The AP report also said Trump has previously threatened to use force to compel Iran to constrain its nuclear program, and he has linked the threats to Iran’s past actions, including what AP described as Tehran’s crackdown on nationwide protests earlier.
AP reported that the United States’ posture is not simply about having a strike capability, but about preparing for how Iran might respond. Ali Vaez, an Iran expert at the International Crisis Group, said it would be “very hard for the Trump administration to do a one-and-done kind of attack in Iran this time around,” arguing that Iran would respond in a way that would make “all-out conflict inevitable.”
While experts said it is possible that U.S. forces could target aspects of Iran’s defenses or narrow objectives tied to the nuclear program, they also cautioned that retaliation could expand beyond what U.S. officials may expect. AP said experts warned that Iran could respond in ways it did not after attacks by the United States or Israel earlier, potentially raising the risk of American casualties and a wider regional war.
The equipment and geography of the buildup reflect that dual emphasis, according to AP. The USS Abraham Lincoln and three guided-missile destroyers have been in the Arabian Sea since the end of January after being redirected from the South China Sea, AP said, and the strike group brought roughly 5,700 additional service members. AP reported that about two weeks later, Trump ordered the world’s largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, along with three destroyers and more than 5,000 additional service members, to head there as well.
AP said that level of naval presence is expected to bring the Navy’s force in the region to at least 16 ships. The report contrasted that with a smaller earlier posture, saying the Ford’s departure left an 11-ship fleet in the Caribbean Sea.
Beyond carriers and destroyers, AP described a wider air campaign preparation involving fighters and support aircraft. It reported that more than 100 fighter jets, including F-35s, F-22s, F-15s and F-16s, left bases in the United States and Europe and were spotted heading toward the Middle East by the Military Air Tracking Alliance, a group of about 30 open-source analysts. AP added that the alliance tracked more than 100 fuel tankers and over 200 cargo planes heading into the region and bases in Europe in mid-February.
AP also reported that the United States moved 12 F-22 stealth fighter jets to a base in Israel, citing a U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the sensitive movements. For additional corroboration, AP said satellite images from Planet Labs of Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, analyzed by AP, showed more than 50 aircraft that were nearly all likely part of the American buildup, with the possibility of more aircraft in hangars.
AP said Steffan Watkins, a researcher based in Canada and a member of the Military Air Tracking Alliance, also tracked support aircraft including early-warning E-3 aircraft heading to a base in Saudi Arabia, describing them as important for coordinating operations with a larger number of aircraft. The report said the wave was preceded by the arrival of Air Force F-15E Strike Eagles, and it cited Central Command’s social media description that the fighter jet “enhances combat readiness and promotes regional security and stability.”
Analysts pointed to limits on the kind of force the Pentagon is assembling, even as they described the assets as substantial for regional operations. Seth Jones, a defense expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told AP it is important to note that the U.S. is not deploying a major ground force, contrasting the current posture with the much larger troop deployments during Operation Desert Storm and the Iraq invasion. Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution said the current military buildup is technically the region’s largest since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
O’Hanlon also told AP that the U.S. could use long-range B-2 bombers if it wanted only to strike what is left of Iran’s nuclear program, referencing the June operations. But he said the forces in place now are designed for both attacking targets in Iran and defending against retaliation, and he warned that expectations for a limited pattern of response could be wrong. O’Hanlon said many expect Iran to “just keep firing drones and cruise missiles back at Israel and American bases in regard to almost anything we might do,” but he argued Iran could go “bigger and broader,” especially if its leadership feels targeted.
Vaez added that Iran is unlikely, in his view, to limit retaliation the way it did after the U.S. struck Iran’s nuclear facilities in June, when AP said Iran signaled its retaliation timing and approach with an attack on a U.S. base in Qatar. Vaez told AP that, in his assessment, Iran has concluded that the “only way that they can stop this cycle is to draw blood and to inflict significant harm on the U.S. and Israel,” even if it comes at “a very high price for themselves.”
Other experts described the strategic logic for why retaliation could expand. AP said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior director at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said Iran is still believed to have ballistic missiles that can strike regional enemies. Taleblu told AP that Iran may see such missiles as a deterrent to Trump but argued that they could instead “be an inducement” to move from a limited operation to a larger one.