With the largest military force deployed to the Middle East in decades, the United States enters nuclear negotiations with Iran in Geneva this week, even as Iranians worry the massive American presence signals an imminent military strike. The talks, scheduled for Thursday, represent what many see as a final opportunity for diplomacy after years of escalating tensions and a deadly crackdown on dissent inside Iran.

The outcome will determine whether Washington and Tehran can resolve a nuclear standoff that has festered since President Trump withdrew from Tehran’s nuclear agreement in 2018, or whether the region will face military conflict with potentially devastating consequences.

The Military Buildup and Iranian Anxieties

For weeks, President Trump has discussed an “armada” now largely positioned off the coast of Iran. The fleet includes the aircraft carriers USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford — the world’s largest carrier — traveling from the Caribbean toward the Middle East. Altogether, at least 16 U.S. Navy ships will be assembled in the region, according to a U.S. Navy official.

The military concentration is comparable to Operation Desert Fox in 1998, when American and British forces bombed Iraq for four days. Hundreds of fighter jets and support aircraft are now in position necessary for launching a major attack on Iran. The United States also moved 12 F-22 stealth fighters to a base in Israel on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is conducting drills that include launching missiles, flying drones, and firing guns at targets along its coast. Iranian state television did not specify the timing or location of the exercises.

Iranians have been watching the military buildup with growing concern, some by circumventing internet restrictions or viewing satellite news channels. The contrast with Iran’s position at the negotiating table weighs heavily on public sentiment.

“It’s not an equal situation,” a passerby told the Associated Press in Tehran on Tuesday, declining to give his name for fear of reprisals. “One side has entered the talks with a lot of power, it has lot of equipment. On the other hand, Iran is in a weak position. They want total surrender, but I think that’s not viable.”

Sepideh Bafarani, a 29-year-old who works in a women’s clothing store, described her mental state bluntly: “Every morning when I get up, my brain is full of chaos. It’s a possible war … and an ongoing bad economic situation.”

Hassan Mirzaei, a 68-year-old taxi driver, invoked the country’s experience with Iraq. “I remember many bad situations, but even during Iran-Iraq war in 1980s it was not like this,” he said. “I am in shock without any hope — especially when there is word about war.”

Negotiations at an Impasse

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on Tuesday that Iran heads into Thursday’s talks “with a determination to achieve a fair and equitable deal — in the shortest possible time.”

However, the gap between the two sides remains wide. Iran insists it wants to continue enriching uranium, something Trump has repeatedly said must stop. Tehran has also refused to discuss its ballistic missile arsenal or its support of regional proxy forces — both demands the Trump administration has made.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei dismissed suggestions from Trump’s special Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff that Iran should have already capitulated given the military forces arrayed against it. “The word ‘capitulation’ does not exist in the Iranians’ dictionary,” Baghaei said Monday.

Crackdowns and Historical Memory

The negotiations unfold against the memory of the country’s January crackdowns on protesters. Death-toll figures vary significantly depending on the source. Trump claimed at least 32,000 people were killed, characterizing that figure as at the higher end of estimates. The U.S.-based Human Rights Activist News Agency has documented more than 7,000 dead and believes the actual toll is far higher. Iran’s government reported on January 21 that 3,117 people were killed.

Those death-toll discrepancies underscore broader credibility gaps affecting the talks themselves.

For many Iranians, the precedent of the 1980–88 war with Iraq looms large. That eight-year conflict killed hundreds of thousands.

Rasool Razzaghi, a 54-year-old resident of Tehran, voiced a common concern: “I predict that if both sides really mean what they are saying, a war will start.”

Still, not all Iranians see capitulation as inevitable. Ami Mianji, a 33-year-old who runs an auto repair shop, said, “I do not care about threats by Trump and others; eventually Iranians will push back any warmonger.”

The Intelligence Signal

In a move that signals the tenor of the moment, the CIA published instructions in Farsi on how Iranians can securely contact the spy agency — a recruitment effort aimed directly at the Iranian public.

Araghchi reiterated Tuesday that Iran has no intention of ever developing a nuclear weapon but will not forgo the “right to harness the dividends of peaceful nuclear technology for our people.” He characterized the Geneva talks as “a historic opportunity to strike an unprecedented agreement that addresses mutual concerns and achieves mutual interests. A deal is within reach, but only if diplomacy is given priority.”

Whether that diplomatic path holds depends on decisions made by both capitals in the days ahead.