What to watch for in Trump’s State of the Union address as midterms loom

What to watch for as Trump delivers the State of the Union

President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address Tuesday is expected to function as a message test for Republicans as they look toward November elections for control of the House and Senate, according to the Associated Press. The address will be followed by Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s Democratic response.

The backdrop for the speech, AP said, is political vulnerability for Trump and his party. AP cited public-opinion concerns that much of the country distrusts how Trump has managed government in his first year back in office, and it pointed to the Supreme Court’s recent decision limiting a major part of Trump’s tariff strategy. AP also said Trump’s intensifying threats about launching military strikes on Iran over its nuclear program could cast a shadow over the address.

Economy and immigration take center stage with voter doubts

AP reported that the administration’s pitch on affordability and immigration—two issues tied to Trump’s earlier promises—may face renewed scrutiny because public sentiment has shifted against him. AP said only 39% of U.S. adults approve of Trump’s economic leadership and 38% support him on immigration, citing the latest Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research survey.

The AP report said the low numbers reflect continuing worries about grocery, housing and utility costs, with those concerns compounded by Trump’s use of tariffs. AP also linked the change in sentiment to political tension around protests, including videos of violent clashes involving protesters and two U.S. citizens killed by federal agents.

AP further reported that since Republicans passed a massive tax cut bill last year, Trump has not unveiled major new policy ideas on the economy. In recent speeches, AP said, he has largely repeated themes about the tax cuts, proposed lowering mortgage rates and described a new government website for buying prescription drugs.

Alex Conant, a Republican strategist, told AP that it makes “it even more important that the speech really focus on the economy.” AP said Conant pointed to the tariff ruling and a Commerce Department report showing slower U.S. economic growth in the final three months of last year, arguing the president needs to bolster his economic message.

Administration blame and credit claims likely to collide

AP reported that the administration appears to be preparing an argument that, despite Trump’s changes to global trade and past tax cuts, today’s economic problems reflect decisions made by former President Joe Biden in 2021 and 2022. At the same time, AP said Trump also wants credit for positive developments such as recent stock market gains.

AP quoted Trump from remarks made at the White House on Wednesday, saying, “Watch the State of the Union. We’re going to be talking about the economy. We inherited a mess.” AP also noted that Trump used similar framing in his State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress last year, invoking the Biden name 13 times.

Supreme Court limits put Trump’s tariffs message in focus

Another major development shaping expectations, AP said, is the Supreme Court ruling last week. AP reported that the court struck down one of the chief levers of Trump’s sweeping tariffs, and it said Trump is vowing to use other mechanisms to continue pursuing import taxes.

AP said the ruling is likely to prolong economic turmoil over trade and prices, even as Trump tries to persuade skeptical voters that his administration’s approach will improve affordability.

Foreign policy could either dominate—or be minimized

Even as AP said Trump is expected to focus on domestic issues, his foreign policy posture is likely to remain present in the speech. AP reported that his threats about military strikes on Iran over its nuclear program have intensified enough to cast a shadow over the address.

AP also said Trump’s “America First” approach has raised concerns among some supporters about whether he should spend more time focusing on voters at home. AP described Trump’s efforts in foreign policy as including attempts to broker peace accords, but it also noted that his administration has launched strikes in Yemen, Nigeria and Iran and has carried out an ongoing campaign of lethal military strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels near South America.

AP said the administration surprised the world in January with a raid aimed at capturing Venezuela’s then-leader, Nicolás Maduro, and floated the idea of using force to seize Greenland. In recent weeks, AP said, Trump has bolstered U.S. military presence in the Middle East as he pressures Iran, but it said he has not laid out a clear case to voters about what his overseas actions mean for their lives.

Conant told AP that the speech may not emphasize foreign policy as much as the past year might suggest. Conant predicted that “this speech will mostly focus on the economy.” AP also reported that Vice President JD Vance made a similar prediction on Fox News Channel on Saturday, saying that “you’re going to hear a lot about the importance of bringing jobs back into our country, of reshoring manufacturing, of all these great factories that are being built,” and adding that Trump would also speak about lowering energy costs.

Trump’s speech format has become more campaign-like

AP reported that the State of the Union has increasingly reflected divisions in society rather than seeking to unite. Kathleen Hall Jamieson, a communications professor at the University of Pennsylvania, said in AP reporting: “What you’re going to expect is some version of a campaign speech in which the Democrats are the villains, the Republicans he likes are the heroes, and he is the savior not only of the nation but of the globe.”

AP said Trump supporters may recall a moment in 2020 when the president reunited a military family midspeech. AP also said Trump bestowed the Presidential Medal of Freedom on Rush Limbaugh, who died in 2021, and that the moment turned off Democrats who viewed Limbaugh as a destructive figure in political media.

Reaction in the chamber may matter as much as the words

AP said that while Trump will deliver the speech, the audience in the House chamber will also play a role. AP noted that when Trump delivered the 2020 State of the Union, then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi theatrically ripped up a copy of the speech afterward, overshadowing much of what Trump said.

The AP report said House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York has told colleagues in a letter that “it is important to have a strong, determined and dignified Democratic presence in the chamber,” signaling that some Democrats might choose not to attend in protest. AP also described the possibility of Democratic lawmakers razzing Trump in a way similar to what Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, did in 2025, when AP said he led to Trump being removed from the chamber.

Conant told AP that it could be notable if Trump lays out a fuller case for why he is using other mechanisms in federal law to continue tariffs. Conant said, “I think that any House Republicans that don’t applaud his tariffs are going to be featured prominently on the telecast.”

Why the State of the Union may have a short political shelf life

AP said the rhetoric of State of the Union addresses can have short shelf lives, and that for Trump—who AP said is known for veering off-script—there is a chance a stray comment or a social media post could step on the message.

Matt Latimer, a former Republican speechwriter for then-President George W. Bush, said in an email that people hear the president talk all of the time, meaning the speech has lost much of its luster. AP reported that Latimer wrote: “A State of the Union ‘only matters in moments when the country is undergoing a great trauma — a war, an attack, a global crisis — and a president and Congress want to speak in a (mostly) united voice to the country,’” adding “That’s not what we are experiencing now.”