What to watch for in Trump's State of the Union address

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President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address on Tuesday is expected to serve as a test run for the message Republicans plan to deliver to voters in November’s elections for control of the House and Senate, when the president and his party appear politically vulnerable. The speech comes after the Supreme Court last week struck down a major lever tied to Trump’s economic and foreign policy, and it arrives as public support remains low on key domestic issues, according to a new AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research survey.

That polling snapshot centers on affordability concerns that voters have continued to associate with the Trump White House. The survey found only 39% of U.S. adults approve of Trump’s economic leadership and 38% support him on immigration, figures that show Americans still are fretting about the costs of groceries, housing and utilities.

The message Trump delivers on Tuesday is expected to confront that problem directly, with attention to how tariffs have intersected with day-to-day prices. The AP-NORC survey and the broader portrayal of public sentiment cited in the lead-in to the address suggest that tariff policy has compounded voter unease, alongside anger about videos of violent clashes with protesters—including reports that two U.S. citizens were killed by federal agents.

Among the themes Trump’s advisers and analysts expect to hear is a push to refocus attention on the economy, even as the legal setback to the tariff program threatens to keep trade turmoil in the foreground. Alex Conant, a Republican strategist, said the president should make the speech “really focus on the economy,” arguing that following the tariff ruling and a Commerce Department report that showed growth slowed in the final three months of last year, Trump needs to bolster his economic message.

Conant also pointed to how Trump’s administration has been trying to frame current economic stress as an inheritance from the 2021 and 2022 decisions of former President Joe Biden, even as Trump seeks to take credit for positive signs in the current economy, including recent stock market gains. Trump himself previewed that approach, saying at the White House on Wednesday, “Watch the State of the Union. We’re going to be talking about the economy. We inherited a mess.” Conant noted Trump previously made a similar argument in last year’s address to a joint session of Congress, invoking the Biden name 13 times.

Economy and immigration are not the only domestic concerns observers are watching. The AP account also indicates Trump’s State of the Union could feature messaging on policies he has outlined in recent speeches, including plans to reduce mortgage rates and a new government website for buying prescription drugs, but with limited new policy development on economic strategy since a massive tax cut bill passed last year.

Foreign policy, however, is expected to remain difficult to contain. Although Trump has been expected to focus primarily on domestic issues, the AP said his intensifying threats about launching military strikes on Iran over its nuclear program are likely to cast a shadow over the address. The speech’s foreign-policy segment could also become a referendum on whether the president’s America First posture abroad is resonating with voters at home.

The AP described that the administration’s past year of military action abroad has included strikes in Yemen, Nigeria and Iran, as well as an ongoing campaign of lethal strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels near South America. It also said Trump surprised observers in January with a raid to capture Venezuela’s then-leader Nicolás Maduro, and that he floated the idea of using force to seize Greenland, all while critics ask what those actions mean for Americans’ lives.

Even as Trump looks to frame diplomacy as part of his record—he has signaled he covets a Nobel Peace Prize—communications professor Kathleen Hall Jamieson said the speech may be better viewed through a campaign lens. She said, “What you’re going to expect is some version of a campaign speech in which the Democrats are the villains, the Republicans he likes are the heroes, and he is the savior not only of the nation but of the globe.”

How lawmakers react in the House chamber could matter as much as what Trump says. When Trump delivered his 2020 State of the Union, then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi theatrically ripped up a copy of the speech afterward, overshadowing much of the message. This year, Democratic House leader Hakeem Jeffries said in a letter to colleagues that “it is important to have a strong, determined and dignified Democratic presence in the chamber,” the AP reported, signaling that some members might not attend in protest while others could instead choose to confront the president in the room.

Conant suggested that any House Republicans who do not applaud Trump’s tariff plans may be highlighted on the telecast, making applause and dissent part of the political communications test. Observers also said that Trump’s style—known for veering off-script—could lead to a stray comment or moment that steps on his planned message, a risk that Matt Latimer, a former Republican speechwriter for then-President George W. Bush, said reflects how little State of the Union rhetoric lasts now unless the country is in a “great trauma.” Latimer said in an email that “That’s not what we are experiencing now.”