Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has now lasted 1,418 days—longer than the Soviet Union’s military campaign against Nazi Germany in World War II. Despite the extended duration, Moscow’s advance has slowed to what NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte called “the speed of a garden snail,” with Russian troops moving only about 50 kilometers into the Donetsk region over the past two years. Mediation efforts led by the Trump administration face sharp disagreements over terms, with Russia demanding territorial gains and other concessions Ukraine has rejected.
Nearly 2 million soldiers are dead, wounded, or missing on both sides, according to estimates cited in the conflict. The grinding war of attrition has raised questions about how long either side can sustain fighting, particularly as Russia faces economic strain from sanctions while Ukraine continues to appeal for Western military support.
The war at 1,418 days
Russia’s 1,418-day invasion has become a grinding stalemate. Unlike the Red Army’s advance to Berlin in World War II—which took the same duration—Russian forces have struggled to fully capture Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland. After Moscow failed to seize Kyiv and install a puppet government in February 2022, the conflict transformed into brutal trench warfare. Russia has occupied approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory since illegally annexing Crimea in 2014.
The casualties have been staggering. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates Russian military casualties at 1.2 million, including 325,000 killed, while Ukrainian troops have suffered up to 600,000 casualties, including up to 140,000 killed. CSIS reported that “Russia has suffered the highest casualty rate of any major power in any war since World War II, and its military has performed poorly, with historically slow rates of advance and little new territory to show for its efforts over the last two years.”
Russian troops are advancing at a pace that suggests the war could continue indefinitely. In the Donetsk region, troops are moving an average of 70 meters per day in an effort to capture the transport hub of Pokrovsk, with only about 50 kilometers gained over the past two years.
Drones reshape the battlefield
For the first time in military history, drones are playing a decisive role, making it effectively impossible for either side to mass troops without detection. Ukraine initially used drones to offset Russia’s firepower advantage; Russia responded by drastically expanding drone operations and introducing longer-range fiber-tethered drones to avoid electronic jamming, extending the kill zone to 50 kilometers from the front.
The conflict has become a hybrid of World War I trench fighting and high-tech warfare, with small groups of infantry attempting to infiltrate enemy positions in towns flattened by Russian heavy artillery. Ukraine retaliated with long-range drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and energy facilities to reduce Moscow’s export revenues. In June, Ukraine conducted a drone attack code-named “Spiderweb” that hit air bases hosting long-range bombers across Russia, delivering what one source called a humiliating blow to the Kremlin.
Energy warfare and the winter toll
Ukrainian officials described the winter as the most challenging of the war, as Russia exponentially increased strikes on the country’s energy system, causing blackouts in Kyiv where power supplies were cut to a few hours a day amid bitter cold. Russia also targeted power lines to split Ukraine’s power grid into isolated islands.
Ukraine responded with winter attacks on Russian oil refineries and energy infrastructure. Ukraine’s drones and missiles sank several Russian warships in the Black Sea, forcing Russia to redeploy its fleet from Crimea to Novorossiysk.
The mediation stalemate
U.S. President Donald Trump, who once promised to end the war in a day, has pushed for a settlement, but mediation efforts have run into sharply conflicting demands.
Putin demands that Ukraine pull troops from the parts of Donetsk that Ukrainian forces still control, abandon its NATO aspirations, curb its military, and grant official status to the Russian language. Ukraine has rejected these terms. Russia left open the possibility of Ukraine’s European Union membership but ruled out European peacekeepers as part of any settlement.
Zelenskyy wants a ceasefire along the existing line of contact, but Putin rules out a truce and demands a comprehensive peace agreement. Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center observed that “the territorial issue is important to the Kremlin, but the war has a more ambitious goal: to create a Ukraine that would be entirely within Russia’s sphere of influence and not perceived by Moscow as anti-Russia.”
Negotiating shifts
After a disastrous White House meeting a year ago, Zelenskyy has adopted a more practical negotiating stance, emphasizing Ukraine’s goodwill. When Trump called for a presidential election in Ukraine, Zelenskyy signaled readiness for it despite it being banned under martial law. Zelenskyy said an election could be coupled with a referendum on a peace deal but insisted the vote was only possible after a ceasefire and Ukraine received security guarantees from the U.S. and other allies.
Both Putin and Zelenskyy have praised U.S. mediation and tried to curry favor with Trump. Ukraine and its allies accuse Putin of dragging out talks while seizing more territory. The Kremlin accuses Kyiv and European supporters of trying to undermine a tentative agreement reached by Trump and Putin at their Alaska summit.
Zelenskyy said the White House has set a June deadline for the war’s end and will likely pressure both sides to meet it. But with Putin insisting on Ukraine’s pullback from Donetsk and Zelenskyy ruling it out, a quick deal appears unlikely. Zelenskyy also expressed skepticism about a compromise U.S. proposal to turn the eastern region into a free economic zone.
The economic calculus
The Kremlin expects its attacks will eventually force Kyiv to accept Moscow’s terms. Ukraine hopes it can hold on until Trump loses patience and increases sanctions on Russia, but Trump often appears to be losing patience with Zelenskyy instead.
War and Western sanctions have strained Russia’s economy. Growth has slowed to near halt due to persistent inflation and labor shortages, and the latest U.S. sanctions on Russian oil exports have added further strain. But Russia’s defense plants have increased weapons output and the government has shielded key social groups—soldiers and industrial workers—from hardship.
“Its economy is poorer, less efficient and less promising than it might otherwise have been,” wrote Richard Connolly of the Royal United Services Institute. “But it remains capable of sustaining the war. Its elites are more dependent on the regime, not less. Its political system is insulated from the transmission of economic discontent into pressure for regime change.”