The Supreme Court’s decision striking down President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs has created new uncertainty in U.S.-China trade relations. Both countries are navigating shifting ground ahead of Trump’s scheduled March 31 through April 2 visit to Beijing, where he is set to meet with President Xi Jinping.

Analysts say the ruling strengthens China’s negotiating hand, but predict Beijing will be cautious in exploiting the advantage, knowing that Trump has other legal authorities for imposing tariffs. Both countries want to maintain a fragile trade truce and stabilize ties ahead of the summit.

The tariff dispute is part of broader U.S.-China competition over technological dominance and economic strength, with the court’s decision leaving both countries and their trading partners scrambling to determine whether the one-year truce framework agreed to in October will hold.

Trump Moves to Alternative Tariff Authority

Furious about the Supreme Court’s rejection of his tariff authority, Trump announced he would pursue multiple avenues to impose duties on imports. He said he was imposing a temporary 10% global tariff, raising it to 15%, as well as seeking alternative legal paths to levy taxes on trading partners.

“China had hundreds of billions of dollars in surpluses with the United States,” Trump told reporters Friday. “They rebuilt China. They rebuilt the army. We built China’s army by allowing that to happen. I have a great relationship with President Xi, but he respects our country now.”

The White House confirmed the Beijing summit is scheduled for March 31 through April 2, marking the first in-person meeting between Trump and Xi since an October summit in South Korea that produced a tentative one-year trade truce.

Beijing Likely to Play It Cautious

China is expected to proceed carefully despite the Supreme Court’s decision appearing to strengthen its negotiating position. Analysts said Xi Jinping is unlikely to use the court ruling as a cudgel in negotiations with Trump, instead focusing on building rapport ahead of the summit.

“The more that Xi can do that, the more likely it is that the fragile trade truce between the United States and China will take hold in earnest and that Trump will be amenable to security concessions that give China greater freedom of maneuver in Asia,” said Ali Wyne, a senior research and advocacy adviser at the International Crisis Group focused on U.S. policy toward China.

When asked about the court ruling’s implications, Chinese Embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu said only that tariff and trade wars serve neither country’s interest. He called for Beijing and Washington to work together to “provide greater certainty and stability for China-U.S. economic and trade cooperation and the global economy.”

Other Trading Partners Navigate Uncertainty

The Supreme Court decision has created new uncertainty for other U.S. trading partners in Asia and beyond, particularly those who negotiated trade deals to address Trump’s earlier tariff threats.

“I would expect most Asian partners to proceed cautiously, with existing agreements largely holding as both sides work through the implications in the coming weeks,” said Dan Kritenbrink, a partner at The Asia Group who served as assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs in the Biden administration.

Kritenbrink said Japan would be a focus, with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi planning a March visit to Washington. Japan, a staunch U.S. ally, has seen its relations with Beijing deteriorate in recent months.

The Supreme Court ruling does not eliminate Trump’s ability to levy tariffs. Shortly after taking office, Trump invoked an emergency powers law to impose 20% tariffs on Chinese goods, citing Beijing’s failure to restrict the flow of chemicals used to make fentanyl. He later used the same emergency authority to impose 34% reciprocal tariffs on China, prompting retaliation that temporarily drove tariffs to triple-digit levels before both sides scaled back.

The October summit produced a one-year trade truce with a 10% baseline tariff. Trump cut the fentanyl tariff to 10%, and Beijing resumed cooperation in restricting substances used for opioid production.

Trump administration officials say they have backup plans if the court ruling prevents them from continuing the sweeping tariffs. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative has an active investigation into whether China is complying with previous trade agreements — a finding of non-compliance would allow the U.S. to impose tariffs under existing trade law.

“If China is found not to be fulfilling its obligations under the agreement, the U.S. government is allowed under trade law to impose tariffs,” said Wendy Cutler, vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute.

Rep. Ro Khanna, the top Democrat on the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, urged the administration to develop a tougher strategy that “holds China accountable for its unfair trade practices and leverages the collective power of our allies and partners.”

Gabriel Wildau, a managing director focused on China political risk at consultancy Teneo, said Beijing likely assumes Trump can maintain or re-create the tariffs “with only modest difficulty” using alternative legal authorities. “But Beijing also holds out hope that they can persuade Trump to lower this tariff in exchange for purchase guarantees or other concessions,” Wildau said.