The development could reshape the nuclear landscape in the Middle East, where Iran has enriched uranium to near-weapons-grade levels and Saudi Arabia’s crown prince has said the kingdom would pursue nuclear weapons if Iran obtains the bomb.
Congressional documents and arms control experts warn that a proposed nuclear cooperation agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia could permit uranium enrichment by the kingdom, raising proliferation concerns as American-Iran tensions escalate.
The proposed agreement, potentially worth billions of dollars, would establish safeguard agreements with the International Atomic Energy Agency covering enrichment, fuel fabrication, and reprocessing. The agreement aims to advance American national security interests and counter competition from China, France, Russia and South Korea in global nuclear technology markets.
But within those safeguards lies a potential path to uranium enrichment technology for Saudi Arabia, according to analysis from the Arms Control Association, a Washington-based nonproliferation organization.
“Nuclear cooperation can be a positive mechanism for upholding nonproliferation norms and increasing transparency, but the devil is in the details,” wrote Kelsey Davenport, the Arms Control Association’s director for nonproliferation policy. She warned that the agreement raises concerns “that the Trump administration has not carefully considered the proliferation risks posed by its proposed nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia or the precedent this agreement may set.”
Davenport said the bilateral safeguards agreement would open the door for Saudi Arabia to acquire uranium enrichment technology or capabilities, possibly even from the United States. “Even with restrictions and limits, it seems likely that Saudi Arabia will have a path to some type of uranium enrichment or access to knowledge about enrichment,” she wrote.
The Trump administration aims to reach 20 nuclear business deals with nations around the world, according to congressional documents. Saudi Arabia did not respond to requests for comment on the proposal.
What Is Uranium Enrichment?
Uranium enrichment is not an automatic path to a nuclear weapon—a nation must also master other steps including the use of synchronized high explosives. But enrichment does open the door to weaponization, a concern that has fueled Western scrutiny of Iran’s nuclear program for decades.
The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia’s neighbor, signed what is referred to as a “123 agreement” with the United States to build its Barakah nuclear power plant without seeking enrichment capabilities. Nonproliferation experts have held up the UAE’s approach as the “gold standard” for nations pursuing nuclear power without weapons ambitions.
Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Calculus
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s day-to-day ruler, has said that if Iran obtains a nuclear bomb, “we will have to get one.” Pakistan’s defense minister said last year that his nation’s nuclear program “will be made available” to Saudi Arabia if needed, a statement made in the context of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signing a mutual defense pact.
President Trump has threatened military action against Iran if it does not reach a nuclear deal with the United States. The threat follows nationwide protests in Iran and a crackdown by the Iranian government that resulted in thousands of deaths and tens of thousands of reported detentions.
Iran’s Nuclear Program and Rising Tensions
Iran has long insisted its uranium enrichment program is peaceful. But the West and the IAEA say Iran had an organized military nuclear program through 2003. More recently, Iran enriched uranium to 60% purity—a short technical step from the 90% level considered weapons-grade—making it the only country in the world to reach such levels without a declared nuclear weapons program.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s comments have been characterized by the Iranian government as a binding religious ruling stating that Iran will not build an atomic bomb. But Iranian officials have increasingly threatened that they could pursue nuclear weapons as tensions with the United States have risen.
The International Atomic Energy Agency told the Associated Press that it “maintains regular contact with both parties and is able to apply verification measures in connection with bilateral cooperation agreements.” The agency said it would address requests for verification measures in accordance with established procedures.