Midterm House campaigns proceed amid ongoing redistricting disputes

Primary elections have already taken place in Texas and North Carolina for newly redrawn House districts, yet a nationwide redistricting battle continues to reshape congressional boundaries in multiple states even as full midterm campaigns are underway. Final district boundaries remain uncertain in Missouri and Virginia, where court decisions and legal challenges could alter voting districts before the November elections.

The redistricting efforts were triggered last summer when President Donald Trump urged Texas Republicans to redraw House districts to give the Republican Party an advantage in the midterm elections. California’s Democratic leaders responded with their own redistricting effort, setting off a tit-for-tat clash that has spread across the country. Republicans believe they could gain as many as nine additional House seats from their redistricting efforts, while Democrats anticipate they could gain six seats in other states.

Democrats need to gain only a few seats to win control of the House, which currently has a Republican majority. However, partisan projections carry uncertainty. Trump faces negative approval ratings in polls, and the party in power historically loses seats in midterm elections—factors that could affect voting patterns in November.

The redistricting battles underscore the stakes of the November elections: control of the House of Representatives, which determines Congress’s capacity to pass or block legislation during Trump’s presidency.

Battlegrounds Underway

Virginia’s redistricting future remains uncertain. The Democratic-led General Assembly passed a congressional map that could help Democrats win up to four additional seats. To advance the plan, lawmakers referred a constitutional amendment allowing mid-decade redistricting to an April 21 election. The state Supreme Court ruled the referendum can proceed while the Court considers legal arguments against the amendment, though a Tazewell County judge ruled the amendment invalid for procedural violations. Democrats have appealed.

Missouri faces a similar fight. Republican Gov. Mike Kehoe signed a revised House map into law in the fall that could help Republicans win an additional seat. The Republican secretary of state says the new districts are in place as candidates file for office in March. However, opponents argue the districts should have been suspended when they submitted petition signatures in December seeking a statewide referendum. The secretary of state has until August to determine whether the petition meets legal requirements. Multiple lawsuits are simultaneously challenging the legality of the new map.

Florida’s situation hinges on a legal challenge. Gov. Ron DeSantis announced plans for a special legislative session in April to redraw congressional districts. A lawsuit challenges the legality of the session, asserting that DeSantis cannot legally call it. The state constitution prohibits drawing districts with intent to favor or disfavor a political party or incumbent.

In Maryland, the Democratic-led state House passed a redistricting plan in February backed by Democratic Gov. Wes Moore that could help Democrats win an additional seat. However, candidate filing ended February 24, and the Democratic state Senate president has said his chamber will not move forward with the plan, citing concerns it could backfire politically.

New York’s path forward depends on court intervention. A federal judge in January ordered state officials to redraw the only congressional district in New York City represented by a Republican, ruling it unconstitutionally dilutes the votes of Black and Hispanic residents. The U.S. Supreme Court granted Republicans’ request to halt the order in March, leaving existing district lines in place for the 2026 election.

Maps Approved and Upheld

In states where redistricting maps have survived legal challenges and taken effect, the political landscape has shifted. Texas Republicans’ map, signed by Gov. Greg Abbott last August, survived scrutiny despite a lower-court ruling finding the map was “racially gerrymandered.” The U.S. Supreme Court cleared the way for the revised districts to be used in this year’s elections.

California voters approved revised House districts drawn by the Democratic-led Legislature in November, which could help Democrats win five additional seats. The U.S. Supreme Court allowed the new districts to be used in 2026 elections when it denied an appeal from Republicans and the Department of Justice, which claimed the districts impermissibly favor Hispanic voters.

North Carolina’s redistricting is settled. The Republican-led General Assembly gave final approval to revised districts in October that could help Republicans win an additional seat. A federal court panel denied a request to block the revised districts in November.

Ohio’s new districts resulted from a bipartisan panel that voted in October to approve revised House districts improving Republicans’ chances of winning two additional seats. The state constitution required new districts before 2026 after Republicans had approved prior maps without sufficient Democratic support.

Utah’s courts have rejected efforts to overturn redistricting imposed in November. A federal court panel and the state Supreme Court each rejected Republican challenges in February, with the court’s original ruling finding that lawmakers had circumvented anti-gerrymandering standards passed by voters.

Potential Redistricting Ahead

Additional redistricting battles could unfold before the election. Louisiana’s governor signed legislation delaying the state’s primary election from April 18 to May 16, potentially giving lawmakers extra time to redraw House districts if the U.S. Supreme Court overturns the current map. The Court heard arguments in October but has not issued a ruling.

South Carolina’s legislative committee is considering a congressional redistricting plan that could help Republicans win an additional seat, though Republican legislative leaders are concerned the plan could backfire and time is running short before the election.

A proposed ballot initiative in Colorado would authorize mid-decade redistricting and impose a new House map that could help Democrats win three additional seats. Organizers must gather enough signatures to qualify for the November ballot. If approved by voters, the new districts could not be used until the 2028 elections.

Democratic lawmakers in Washington have proposed a constitutional amendment allowing mid-decade redistricting, though they lack the two-thirds legislative majority needed to refer the amendment to voters. The measure is unlikely to advance before the November election.

Wisconsin has two lawsuits asserting that congressional districts must be redrawn because they unconstitutionally favor Republicans. One case is not scheduled for trial until 2027, and it remains unclear whether the other case can be resolved before the midterm election.