In Taipei, U.S. President Donald Trump’s comment that he is discussing potential arms sales to Taiwan with China’s leader has triggered fresh unease about how Washington approaches security support for the island at a time of intensifying military pressure from Beijing. Trump said Monday that he was speaking with Xi about the issue and that a decision would come “pretty soon,” while also saying he has “a very good relationship with President Xi.”
Trump made the remarks after being asked about Xi’s opposition to the arms sales, according to the Associated Press report published Tuesday. “I’m talking to him about it. We had a good conversation, and we’ll make a determination pretty soon,” Trump said, describing his exchange with Xi and adding that he and Xi have maintained a positive relationship.
Experts and politicians in the region have framed the exchange as potentially signaling a shift in U.S. practice, or at least changing expectations in Taiwan about how much role Beijing might have in determining the scope of future weapons packages. The concern is amplified by the fact that Taiwan depends on U.S. support because China does not allow countries with diplomatic ties to Beijing to have formal relations with Taipei, and it regularly sends military aircraft and naval vessels near the island.
At the center of the debate is the U.S. government’s Six Assurances, a set of non-binding principles formulated in 1982 under President Ronald Reagan. William Yang, a senior Northeast Asia analyst at the International Crisis Group, said Trump’s remarks may violate the assurance that the United States “did not agree to consult with the People’s Republic of China on arms sales to Taiwan.” Yang said that principle has been used by multiple U.S. presidents to justify and continue arms sales without discussing the topic with China, and he warned that Trump could be creating a “dangerous precedent” that gives Beijing new leverage to make demands about U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.
China has also recently underscored its objections to U.S. arms sales. The AP report said that in a phone conversation earlier this month, Xi warned Trump that “the U.S. must handle the issue of arms sales to Taiwan with prudence,” and stressed that “the Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-U.S. relations,” according to a readout of their call published by China’s foreign ministry.
The AP report placed Trump’s remarks within the broader structure of U.S.-Taiwan policy, which operates through three interlocking pillars given the lack of formal diplomatic relations between Washington and Taipei. One pillar is the Taiwan Relations Act, passed by Congress in 1979, which binds the U.S. to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself while treating threats to the island as a security concern. Another is the series of U.S. and Chinese statements known as the Three Communiques, which the report said form the basis of U.S. strategic ambiguity by acknowledging there is only one China without recognizing Beijing’s sovereignty over Taiwan. The third pillar is the Six Assurances, which are intended to reassure Taiwan of continued U.S. support.
Other experts said Trump’s language suggests Beijing could influence the quantity of weapons rather than only expressing opposition. Hoo Tiang Boon, an associate professor of international relations at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said the comments are disturbing because they sound like an issue that could be “bargained away,” even if the U.S. ultimately approves arms sales packages.
Trump is also set to visit China in April, his first trip during his current term, and Taiwan is expected to be a prominent topic during his meetings with Xi. Lev Nachman, a political science professor at National Taiwan University, said uncertainty over whether Trump will address arms sales to Taiwan during the visit is likely to amplify skepticism in Taiwan about whether the United States would intervene in a potential Chinese attack.
The AP report also pointed to domestic political and fiscal strain that Taiwan faces in implementing existing U.S. weapons deals. It said Lai Ching-te, who leads Taiwan’s independence-leaning government, is having difficulty securing payment for existing U.S. arms sales packages, with the budget stalled in parliament. Taiwan’s opposition lawmakers said Monday they would review a $40 billion special defense budget once they reconvene after the Lunar New Year holiday on Feb. 23.
This version corrects Trump’s quote to “I’m talking to him about it. We had a good conversation” from the previous versions that incorrectly quoted him as saying “I’ve talked to him about it, made a good conversation.”