Drone strikes in Sudan’s Kordofan escalate, harming civilians and aid

Body

Drone strikes have surged in Sudan’s Kordofan region, hampering humanitarian operations and taking an increasing toll on civilians as the war nears its three-year mark, analysts and aid workers said Feb. 18. Analysts said the intensity reflects how the conflict has increasingly concentrated in the west, where Kordofan’s geography makes control of towns and corridors central to both sides’ advances.

Sudan Doctors Network, which tracks violence through the war, said at least 77 people were killed and dozens injured in various attacks in densely populated areas, with many of the strikes blamed on the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. Many victims, the group said, were civilians.

The conflict between the RSF and the Sudanese military erupted into full-blown war in April 2023, and the World Health Organization has previously reported at least 40,000 deaths and 12 million displaced people. Aid groups have argued the real toll could be higher, saying fighting in vast and remote areas restricts access and reporting.

Jalale Getachew Birru, a senior analyst for East Africa at the nonprofit Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), said the military increased its use of drones and airstrikes in Kordofan over the past year as the war shifted westward. Birru said Kordofan has become “a primary theater of operations,” and he described how recent attempts to break sieges have left towns still vulnerable.

Two weeks ago, the military said it had broken the RSF siege of Kadugli, the capital of South Kordofan province, and the neighboring town of Dilling after more than two years. But Birru told The Associated Press that the sieges were not fully broken, adding: “These cities are still encircled, and the fight for the control of these cities and the wider region is ongoing.”

Residents described how the siege-breaking brought short-term improvements while drone attacks soon resumed. Walid Mohamed, a Kadugli resident, told the AP that breaking the siege allowed more goods and medicines into the city, reopening the corridor with Dilling and driving down food prices after a dire humanitarian situation. He said RSF drone strikes have since occurred almost daily, mainly targeting hospitals, markets and homes.

In Dilling, Omran Ahmed said drone strikes had increased, “spreading fear and terror among residents as they see more civilians become victims.” The United Nations also warned of civilian harm: U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said Wednesday that drone strikes killed more than 50 civilians over two days, condemning attacks on civilian sites including markets, health facilities and schools.

A U.N. spokesperson, Stéphane Dujarric, said there was evidence that both sides had used drones against civilians in the week’s attacks. Dujarric told reporters that civilians hit were at one time or another in government-controlled areas and in RSF-controlled areas, adding, “which would make us believe that both sides are using them.” Two military officials, who spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief the media, said the army does not target civilian infrastructure.

Even amid the warnings, U.N. agencies reported progress on aid access. A U.N. convoy reached Dilling and Kadugli with aid for more than 130,000 people, described as the first major delivery in three months, United Nations agencies said Wednesday. Aid workers said the improvement remains fragile in the face of fast-changing security.

Mathilde Vu, an advocacy manager with the Norwegian Refugee Council, told the AP there was “huge concern” about the “unacceptable” escalation in Kordofan and that it could “shatter lives and obstruct any hope to reverse the famine/ starvation” in the region. She described a pattern of messages in which drone attacks hit civilian infrastructure across Kordofan and neighboring areas, including Darfur and the east.

Beyond the immediate civilian toll, analysts said the Kordofan battlefront is shifting as both sides seek strategic routes. Kholood Khair, founding director of Confluence Advisory, told the AP that much of the recent fighting has centered in Kordofan because the army wants a route into Darfur, while the RSF wants a route out of Kordofan back toward Khartoum. Khair said the army’s last stronghold in Darfur’s El-Fasher fell to the RSF in October, and that recapturing it could help restore supply and logistic lines between Kordofan and Darfur.

She said both the military and the RSF have used drones—especially in North Kordofan—and that civilians have been hard-hit. Federico Donelli, an associate professor of international relations at the University of Trieste, said both sides have stepped up drone and airstrike use in Kordofan over the past few weeks, citing factors that included new weapons and drones acquired by the army that he said were manufactured and supplied by foreign actors.

Donelli said the increased capability has enabled the army to rely more heavily on precision strikes, “mirroring tactics” the RSF has used. He also said both sides may be struggling to maintain troop strength, leading to drones being favored over deploying armed units on the ground, particularly in contested areas like Kordofan. Khair said the fighting could shift further in the coming period, with the army potentially pushing toward Darfur, including toward El-Fasher.

AP writer Edith M. Lederer contributed from the United Nations, and freelancer Yasir Abdalla contributed from Khartoum.