Japan’s trade data released this week showed a sharp jump in exports for January, with shipments to China and broader Asian markets helping offset weakness in other directions and leaving the country with a smaller-than-a-year-ago trade shortfall, the finance ministry said Wednesday.
The ministry reported that exports climbed 16.8% from the same month a year earlier to 9.19 trillion yen ($59.8 billion). It said imports slipped 2.5% to 10.3 trillion yen ($67 billion), resulting in a deficit of 1.15 trillion yen ($7.5 billion), less than half the trade deficit recorded a year earlier.
The finance ministry said the year-on-year comparison also reflected seasonal timing, because the Lunar New Year fell later than usual this year, on Feb. 17. Analysts cited that shift as a key reason the jump in early-year trade appeared unusually large.
Japan’s export pattern also showed clear regional divergence. Exports to the United States fell 0.5% in January, and vehicles—about a third of Japan’s exports—fell nearly 10%, while imports from the U.S. rose 3%.
Despite current tensions between Japan and Beijing linked to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments about Taiwan, Japan’s exports to China increased 32% year-on-year in January. The data also showed exports to all of Asia remained robust, rising 26% over the same period.
The ministry said imports of semiconductors and other computer components showed the fastest growth. The commentary provided in the report linked that rise to the artificial intelligence boom, which has boosted demand for data-center equipment and chips.
Oxford Economics’ Norihiro Yamaguchi cautioned that the strength behind the current numbers may not persist. He said the “currently strong tailwind from the US AI boom is unlikely to last,” and added that exports were “highly likely to moderate next month,” pointing to expectations that the lift in Asian-bound shipments excluding China would cool.
Japan’s economy has been heavily dependent on exports, and the report said recent tariff moves by U.S. President Donald Trump have taken a toll. It also cited relatively weak growth recently, with the economy expanding at an anemic 0.2% annual pace in the last quarter and growth for 2025 at just 1.1%, as weaker exports offset a modest increase in private consumption.