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Secretary of State Marco Rubio is arriving at the Munich Security Conference with a diplomacy-focused message aimed at steadying European anxieties about President Donald Trump’s approach to allies, even as European leaders question the reliability of the post-World War II transatlantic relationship.
Rubio is leading a “large U.S. delegation” to the meeting this week, where leaders of European governments and security officials hope for “at least a brief reprieve” from what the AP described as Trump’s “often inconsistent policies and threats” that have strained relations across the Atlantic. U.S. officials previewing the trip on condition of anonymity said Rubio intends to emphasize cooperation on shared global and regional concerns, including the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as China—an economic power that officials said is seeking to take advantage of the uncertainty in U.S.-European ties.
Before boarding his flight on Thursday evening, Rubio offered remarks that framed Europe as central to Americans as individuals and as a shared cultural legacy. “We’re very tightly linked together with Europe,” he told reporters, adding that “Most people in this country can trace both, either their cultural or their personal heritage, back to Europe. So, we just have to talk about that.” Rubio also warned that “We live in a new era in geopolitics, and it’s going to require all of us to reexamine what that looks like.”
The context for Rubio’s appearance is the conference’s recent past. A year ago, Vice President JD Vance used the same venue for a verbal assault on many of America’s closest European allies, accusing them of imperiling Western civilization with domestic left-leaning programs and of not taking responsibility for their own defense—an address that European leaders and transatlantic policy figures said resonated as an early sign of the Trump administration’s posture toward Europe. Claudia Major, a senior vice president at the German Marshall Fund in Berlin, described Vance’s speech as “really a shock moment,” saying it was “perceived as the first very clear statement” of what the new administration was about, specifically that “Europeans are not partners any longer.”
Major said that doubts now extend beyond rhetoric to the foundations of trust. “There is a big doubt whether the basis (of trust) is still there and whether we still share the same vision for the trans-Atlantic relationship,” she said. “The longer this kind of estrangement goes, the more difficult it will be to re-find a solid relationship.” Wolfgang Ischinger, chairman of the Munich Security Conference, echoed that diagnosis, saying this week that “Transatlantic relations are currently in a significant crisis of confidence and credibility,” while also expressing hope that Rubio and the large number of U.S. lawmakers expected to attend will offer a less dire and dour view.
European responses to Trump’s unpredictability have varied. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whom Rubio plans to meet Friday, has tried a “middle line” approach: he has urged Europe to learn the language of power politics while keeping a clear alliance posture. Merz said Europe also needs to “learn the language of power politics” to assert itself, pointing to actions such as taking greater responsibility for security, striving for greater “technological independence,” and boosting economic growth, while stressing that “as democracies, we are partners and allies and not subordinates” of the United States.
Other leaders have appeared to take a harder stance. French President Emmanuel Macron, along with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, has been described as having “all but given up” on Trump and the United States, with both Canada and France opening consulates in Nuuk, the Greenlandic capital, in a show of support for Greenland and Denmark. Macron warned that after the “Greenland moment,” tensions between Europe and the U.S. could intensify, describing the Trump administration as “openly anti-European” and seeking the European Union’s “dismemberment.” In an interview with several European newspapers, Macron said, “When there’s a clear act of aggression, I think what we should do isn’t bow down or try to reach a settlement,” adding, “I think we’ve tried that strategy for months. It’s not working.” Macron also pointed to what he called a “double crisis,” saying Europe faces “the Chinese tsunami on the trade front” and “minute-by-minute instability on the American side.”
Carney has been singled out for pushing back against Trump while also pursuing alternatives. AP reported that Carney has made no secret of his frustration and impatience with the Republican president, and has emerged as a leader of a movement to help countries link up and counter the U.S. Carney has also said he plans to pursue trade deals with countries other than the U.S., including China, to serve as “anchors of commercial stability,” a strategy that AP said has drawn new threats from Trump.
For many European leaders, Trump’s comments about Greenland have sharpened fears about how Washington might treat other security flashpoints, including Europe’s concerns about Russia’s war with Ukraine. Fiona Hill, a Russia expert who served on the White House National Security Council during Trump’s first term, drew an explicit comparison in comments to the AP: “Greenland is to Trump as, essentially, Ukraine is to (Russian President Vladimir) Putin, although obviously without the devastating war at this stage.” That comparison landed as Europe weighed diplomacy under pressure and whether coercive bargaining could undermine deterrence.
Rubio, however, may find that questions about Greenland follow him closely at Munich. AP reported that Trump’s recent comments about taking control of Greenland from NATO member Denmark and insults directed at other leaders have been particularly unnerving for European officials, leading many to question the value of the U.S. as an ally. Rubio said Thursday he expects to be asked about Greenland and told reporters, “You know, we’re working on that. We feel good about it.”
The uncertainty that Europeans say they feel is not limited to Europe’s northern flank. As Trump tries to mediate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war and seek a nuclear deal with Iran, Europeans also reported being uneasy about a “Board of Peace,” a 27-member group tasked first with handling the Gaza peace agreement and later envisioned as a vehicle for resolving other major conflicts. Germany, France, Britain, Italy, Norway and Sweden—among others—have either declined to accept or have not yet signed on to the board, which will hold its first meeting to raise money for Gaza in Washington on Feb. 19.