Russia cannot launch an attack on NATO this year or next, but it is preparing to increase its forces along the alliance’s eastern flank depending on how the war in Ukraine unfolds, according to a senior European intelligence assessment described by Estonia’s foreign intelligence chief. Kaupo Rosin, speaking to journalists in an online briefing ahead of the publication of Estonia’s annual security report Tuesday, said Russian leaders are focused on future contingencies rather than any near-term change in posture toward NATO.
Rosin said Russia’s plans include creating new military units and multiplying the prewar force along its border with NATO by what he described as “two to three times,” while acknowledging the extent of any buildup would be influenced by discussions involving Moscow, Washington and Kyiv about a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine. He said Russia would need to keep a “significant portion” of its military inside occupied Ukraine and in Russia to prevent any future Ukrainian action.
In Rosin’s assessment, Moscow is also concerned about Europe rearming and being able to conduct military action against Russia in the next couple of years. He said there are currently “not enough resources available” for Russia to strike NATO, but that the Kremlin is nonetheless positioning for the medium term.
Rosin also characterized Russia’s stance in the negotiations as rooted in its view of U.S. intentions. He said Russian officials are playing for time in talks with Washington and that there is “absolutely no discussion about how to really cooperate with the U.S. in a meaningful way.” He added that the Kremlin’s messaging reflects an expectation that Washington remains Moscow’s “main enemy,” based on intelligence that Estonia said it gathered from “Russian internal discussions.”
Turning to Putin’s outlook, Rosin said the Russian president currently has no desire to halt the nearly four-year invasion and thinks he can “outsmart” the United States during talks on ending the war. Rosin said he believes Putin, “in his head, still thinks that he can actually militarily win (in Ukraine) at some point,” and suggested the conflict is likely to continue in some form for several years unless Russia faces a “catastrophic” shift on the front or threatens his power.
In Washington, a White House official responded to Rosin’s comments, saying negotiators have made “tremendous progress” on efforts to end the war. The official pointed to prisoner exchanges that have happened sporadically since May and specifically cited a recent Abu Dhabi agreement involving the United States, Ukraine and Russia to release more than 300 prisoners, saying such steps show efforts to end the war are advancing. The official was granted anonymity because they did not have permission to speak publicly.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also raised expectations about timing, with Rosin’s briefing noting that Zelenskyy said last week Washington gave Kyiv and Moscow a June deadline to reach a settlement. The briefing included the assessment that previous U.S. deadlines have come and gone without apparent consequences.
Fiona Hill, a Russia expert and adviser to Trump in his first term, said Trump and his officials are spinning a story in which the U.S. president is portrayed as a peacemaker and, for that reason, they are not interested in changing their assessment that Putin wants to end the war. Hill told AP that both leaders “need their version of events to play out” and are hanging onto their version of the truth — Putin as the victor in Ukraine and Trump as the dealmaker.
Hill also questioned what intelligence Trump receives, saying it is unclear what information he gets on Russia or whether he reads it, and suggesting he relies heavily on key negotiators, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Hill raised concerns about whether the envoys accurately understand what is discussed in meetings, referring to reports that Witkoff attended meetings with Putin without a U.S. State Department translator, and said officials may be “selectively” looking for what they want to hear. Rosin similarly said he does not know why U.S. officials believe Putin wants to end the war.
As the talks proceed, Rosin and Hill discussed battlefield dynamics and the flow of information to top leaders. Rosin said Putin may be receiving incorrect information from his officials and described a reporting problem in which optimism is reinforced higher up the chain of command. He said “the lower you go in the food chain,” the more people understand “how bad it is actually on the ground,” and he cited examples in which officials were told Russian forces had captured Ukrainian settlements that had not been true.
In the background of the diplomatic exchanges, fighting continued with reports of new casualties in Ukraine on Tuesday. The AP report said Russian planes dropped seven powerful glide bombs on Sloviansk in the Donetsk region, killing an 11-year-old girl and her mother and injuring 16 others, including a 7-year-old girl, according to regional chief Vadym Filashkin. During the night, Russian drone attacks elsewhere in Ukraine wounded at least five people, including a toddler and two other children, regional authorities said.
Hill said the information arriving at the leaders’ desks may be shaped by incentives to please them, while Rosin said Putin’s priorities are “so deep in his head” that they take precedence over other considerations, including the economy. He also said not all Russian officials share the view that Russia is winning and suggested that those close to the ground may have a clearer picture of the conflict’s costs.