Rare GOP win possible in California governor race as Democrats split votes

Body

California Democrats are confronting an unusual and potentially high-impact electoral scenario as the June primary for governor approaches: the party faces a math problem in which multiple Democratic candidates could split votes so that two Republicans finish in the “top two” slots and advance to November.

The uncertainty comes from California’s primary structure, described in the reporting as a “top two” system. Under that system, all candidates appear on a single ballot, but only the two top finishers advance to the general election in November regardless of party. Party insiders have said they are concerned that this setup could allow a Democratic-dominated state to produce a Republican top-two matchup in the general election.

“It’s the parlor game in Sacramento right now — could this happen?” Democratic consultant Paul Mitchell said. Mitchell said he used available polling data to run simulations assessing the likelihood of a twin Republican breakthrough, finding it possible though with long odds. He framed the practical problem as a lack of a single candidate who could easily tell other lower-tier Democrats to stop running.

Porter’s campaign likewise warned about the scenario. In a recent fundraising pitch, the campaign said: “There’s a very real chance there could be only Republicans on November’s ballot.” The concern is not just theoretical for Democrats, according to the report, because the general election ballot has implications beyond the governor’s contest, including congressional races that could affect control of the U.S. House.

The Democratic field is large largely because the governor’s job has become a magnet for candidates and because the race is unusually wide open. With Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom barred by law from seeking a third term, the reporting described the race as the most open contest for governor in a generation. Dozens of people have filed paperwork to run, ranging from a college student to a billionaire, and the story identifies at least nine Democrats with the name recognition and fundraising operation to compete seriously.

The candidates highlighted in the report include current and former members of Congress: Katie Porter, Rep. Eric Swalwell, and Xavier Becerra, who later served as the Biden administration’s top health official; plus former state controller Betty Yee and schools superintendent Tony Thurmond. Billionaire Tom Steyer, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and Ian Calderon, a former majority leader in the state Assembly, were also listed among those seeking the nomination.

Within the crowded field, the report said candidates are trying to differentiate themselves amid overlapping ideological space. Swalwell, for example, has campaigned partly on his role as a House manager of Trump’s 2021 impeachment trial, the story said. Mahan, described as the newest candidate, has been critical of Newsom on crime and homelessness, while Steyer is portrayed as among Mahan’s top critics over alignment with tech interests.

Some Democrats hope the field will narrow on its own. “It would be best for ‘the lower-tiered people to drop out,’” said Democratic strategist Drexel Heard II, who described himself as a former executive director of the Los Angeles County Democratic Party. “You are looking at people who are never going to break through,” Heard said, pointing to a dynamic that could become more urgent if the June primary results fragment Democratic support.

Republicans, for their part, see a different version of the same strategic challenge: vote splitting. The report described the leading GOP candidates as Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton, both supporters of President Donald Trump. Mitchell said his simulations indicated the twin Republican outcome was possible even if it was unlikely. But Hilton has also urged Bianco to drop out, arguing that Republicans cannot risk dividing their votes. “We cannot risk splitting the Republican vote and letting the Democrats in,” Hilton said in a recent debate, according to the story.

The reporting also suggested the California contest is reflecting broader Democratic dynamics, comparing it to the developing 2028 Democratic presidential race. It said Democrats are regrouping after the national party’s losses in 2024 and that candidates in both races are testing messages meant to galvanize voters ahead of the midterms and beyond. Democratic consultant Antjuan Seawright said the abundance of candidates reflects energy and frustration, and that both races share a need to focus on building and strengthening the coalition. “We have to learn how to focus on the game of expansion and strengthening our coalition,” Seawright said.