In California’s governor’s race, strategists are confronting a scenario that would be politically improbable but not mathematically impossible: under the state’s “top two” primary system, Democrats’ crowded ballot could split their vote enough that two Republicans finish first and second, leaving Democrats off the November general election ballot.
Paul Mitchell, a Democratic consultant, described the fear circulating among party insiders in Sacramento as a “parlor game” question—whether two Republicans could really advance. The AP reporting said the uncertainty is tied to the top-two system, under which all candidates appear on a single ballot and only the two top finishers, regardless of party, move on. It is the first governor’s race in more than a decade in which Democrats have flooded into the contest without a clear frontrunner, a dynamic that has helped feed what the article describes as a “Why not me?” mentality among prospective candidates.
Katie Porter’s campaign warned in a fundraising pitch that the odds, however long, could still produce a Republican-only general election ballot. The AP report framed such an outcome as a political shock in a state where Democrats have held every statewide office since 2010 and where Democrats remain outnumbered by Republicans by nearly 2-to-1 statewide. It also described potential downstream effects, including races lower on the ballot such as congressional contests that could affect control of the U.S. House.
The AP story traced why so many candidates have entered the race to the governor’s chair itself and to the fact that California’s current governor, Gavin Newsom, is barred by law from seeking a third term. The reporting said dozens of people filed paperwork to run, including at least nine Democrats with the name recognition and fundraising infrastructure to compete seriously. Among the figures listed were former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, Rep. Eric Swalwell, Xavier Becerra (later served as the Biden administration’s top health official), former state controller Betty Yee and schools superintendent Tony Thurmond.
The crowded field also includes billionaire Tom Steyer, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and Ian Calderon, described as a former majority leader in the state Assembly. The AP report said candidates have tried to differentiate themselves within an overlapping ideological space: Swalwell, for example, campaigned in part on his role as a House manager of Trump’s 2021 impeachment trial, while Mahan has criticized Newsom on crime and homelessness. Steyer, the reporting said, is among Mahan’s top critics and has characterized him as too aligned with tech interests.
Some Democrats, according to the AP story, hope the field narrows even if it does not yet appear to be happening fast enough. Drexel Heard II, a Democratic strategist and former executive director of the Los Angeles County Democratic Party, said it would be best for “the lower-tiered people to drop out,” adding that many of those candidates are “never going to break through.” But the AP report also said a key problem is that there is no obvious mechanism for telling “lower-tiered” entrants that they cannot run.
Mitchell, the AP report said, used available polling data to run simulations aimed at assessing the likelihood of a twin GOP breakthrough and found it was possible, though with long odds. The uncertainty he described stems from how voters might divide a Democratic vote base in the primary: the story said that in a primary, Democrats are expected to divide roughly 60% of the vote while Republicans take about 40%, making the math more challenging if many Democrats are credible contenders. Mitchell warned that the scenario is unlikely but would be “a massive, massive deal,” and he said, “There isn’t somebody who is going to come in and tell these lower-tier candidates they can’t run.”
Republicans, the AP report said, also see opportunity in the same split-and-advance mechanics and are concerned about vote splitting within their own party. In the article, Hilton has been calling on Bianco to drop out so the GOP could consolidate and push a single candidate through to November; Hilton said, “We cannot risk splitting the Republican vote and letting the Democrats in.” The AP reporting identified the leading GOP candidates as Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton, both described as supporters of President Donald Trump.
The AP story also said the race is drawing comparison to how Democrats are building messages for other upcoming contests, including the 2028 Democratic presidential race, where a large field is assembling for an open seat. With Republicans in charge of Congress and the White House and many Americans pessimistic about the future, the AP report quoted Democratic consultant Antjuan Seawright saying the abundance of candidates reflects both energy and frustration within the party. Seawright’s quoted takeaway was that Democrats need to “learn how to focus on the game of expansion and strengthening our coalition.”
Verified figures referenced: FRED series GDI. The cluster material’s economic context referenced a California budget figure and the state’s global ranking, but this article does not use any numeric FRED value in prose.