It is pre-dawn in Kyiv’s Podil district, where the warm light from the Spelta bakery-bistro signals a rare pocket of normalcy. Moments after a baker slides loaves into an oven, the lights can go out as Russian attacks hit Ukraine’s energy grid, turning the kitchen dark and forcing a switch to backup power. Olha Hrynchuk, the co-founder and head baker, said that this kind of disruption has made it “now more than impossible to imagine a Ukrainian business operating without a generator,” describing generators as a daily requirement rather than a contingency.
Hrynchuk opened Spelta in Kyiv in the winter after Russia’s full-scale invasion began in 2022, when energy infrastructure became a recurring target. She said her business has not known “normal” conditions and that power outages bring a practical challenge that goes beyond simply keeping lights on. She said their production is dependent on electricity and that the generator burns about 700 hryvnias, roughly $16, worth of fuel per hour. Hrynchuk described running the generator for 10 to 12 hours a day, saying the business has “no fixed schedule” and must adapt and refuel while managing operations.
Across the country, officials and industry representatives say the power problem is compounded by other pressures that stretch small firms’ margins. The Associated Press reported that businesses face acute labor shortages tied to mobilization and war-related migration, security risks, declining purchasing power, and complicated logistics. In that context, the Restaurants of Ukraine analytical center said the sector is enduring what it called its most difficult period in the past 20 years, even as companies expected electricity cuts.
For some, outages and the wider impact of strikes have proved too costly to absorb. “Best Way to Cup,” which has two venues and roasts and grinds its own coffee, is “on the brink of permanent closure,” according to its co-founder Yana Bilym. She said a Russian attack shattered the cafe’s windows and glass doors in August, and she described financing 150,000 hryvnias (about $3,400) in renovation costs with a bank loan that she only recently finished repaying. Bilym said that after consecutive large-scale attacks on the energy sector last month, her entire building lost water supply and then saw its sewer system stop working, leaving her with no option but to close.
Bilym said the business shut down but expected it to be temporary, while pointing to the financial reality that many small cafes and family-run establishments cannot withstand prolonged disruption. She said businesses in December and January “unfortunately, operate at a loss,” and she described the immediate operational strain of maintaining refrigeration and coffee equipment when power is patchy. She said she must regularly check coffee machines and specialty refrigerators and fears the equipment may not survive the cold. Bilym also said her husband volunteered for military service on the front line and that she wants the cafe to be a place he can return to after his civilian life resumes.
Even where businesses can keep operating, owners described the expense of generator reliance as a major driver of falling margins. Tetiana Abramova, founder of clothing company Rito Group, said the firm bought a 35-kilowatt generator costing 500,000 hryvnias, about $11,500, after taking out a loan in 2022, along with a wood-fired boiler for heating. Abramova described the day-to-day effect of the tradeoff, saying “At work we have heat, we have water, we have light — and we have each other,” but she said operating on generators adds significant cost compared with regular electricity.
Abramova said running on generators is 15% to 20% more expensive than using normal electricity, and she added that production costs are about 15% higher than normal as a result. She said customer numbers dropped by about 40% as many people left the country and that the company has shifted its focus to attracting new customers through online sales. Abramova said profitability has fallen by around 50%, partly due to power outages, and that the outages affect both the volume and efficiency of work, adding that the company “simply cannot operate as much as we used to.”
Ukraine’s economic planning faces a similar calculation: how long power disruptions persist may determine whether the broader damage stays limited or grows. The AP reported that a macroeconomic forecast by the Kyiv School of Economics for the first quarter of 2026 described strikes on the energy system as the most acute short-term risk to Ukraine’s GDP. The analysis said that if businesses adapt, output losses could be limited to around 1% or 2% of GDP, but that prolonged failures could lead to larger losses, as much as 2% to 3% of GDP.
For business owners, the economic question translates into daily spending and operational choices. Abramova said she spent nearly 100,000 hryvnias, about $2,300, over two months on generator servicing to maintain production, and she said she cannot pass all those costs to retailers. She said that for her company, “For us now, the main goal is not to be the most efficient, but to survive,” describing a shift from growth and optimization toward simply keeping production going under conditions shaped by war.
Elsewhere, Ukraine has tried to carve out community lifelines during curfew hours by allowing some businesses to operate as “Points of Invincibility.” The AP reported that these sites give access to free electricity to charge phones and power banks, drink tea, and provide some respite from the cold. For the businesses still open, that limited relief does not remove the central challenge: a winter where electricity can disappear without warning, and where survival depends on preparedness, fuel, and the ability to adapt repeatedly.