Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is betting that her personal popularity can translate into seats for the Liberal Democratic Party in Sunday’s snap election, as she campaigns for a sharper shift on issues ranging from foreign policy to immigration and defense.
Takaichi, who became Japan’s first female prime minister when she took office in October, has framed her push for the election as a test of whether she can stay in the job and carry out her agenda, according to the report. Polling cited ahead of the vote suggests her ultraconservative approach has helped her generate momentum, including among younger supporters who have responded to her “work, work, work” style.
The snap election concerns the lower house of Japan’s parliament, a 465-seat chamber that carries more power than the upper house. The report says latest polls indicate a possible landslide win for Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party, with the party positioned to win a majority when paired with its right-wing partner, the Japan Innovation Party.
Even with a coalition path to a majority, the report highlights that uncertainty remains about whether Takaichi’s bloc can secure a simple majority on its own. It also notes that the coalition does not hold a majority in the upper house, leaving legislation dependent on opposition cooperation and creating potential stability risks.
Takaichi’s platform would, the report says, move further to the right on security, immigration, and other policies, with far-right populists also seeking gains. The report describes Komeito as having broken from the LDP over Takaichi’s political views and alleged lax anti-corruption measures, before forming a centrist alliance with the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan that promises “realistic” security and backs a nuclear weapons-free world.
Ahead of the election, Takaichi has pledged to revise security and defense policies by December, including plans to bolster Japan’s offensive military capabilities. The report says she is pushing to lift the ban on lethal weapons exports and to move further away from postwar pacifist principles, while also advocating tighter measures on foreigners, anti-espionage policy, and immigration, including requirements aimed at foreign property owners and a cap on foreign residents.
The campaign has also taken place against growing tensions with China and heightened unpredictability in relations with the United States. The report says Japan’s relationship with Beijing worsened after Takaichi suggested Japan could become involved in a scenario involving Chinese military action against Taiwan, deviating from previous Japanese leaders’ strategic ambiguity; it adds that she later stepped back from some right-wing rhetoric as China’s economic and diplomatic retaliation extended.
Trump’s involvement has been another prominent factor in the pre-vote environment. The report says Trump endorsed Takaichi on X on Thursday, announced he invited her to visit the White House on March 19, and praised her as “a strong, powerful, and wise leader,” adding that she “will not let the people of Japan down.”
Japanese politics heading into the weekend has also included practical and political concerns. The report cites record snowfall in northern Japan that blocked roads and was blamed for dozens of deaths nationwide, potentially complicating voting or delaying vote counting, and it says Takaichi’s party is also dealing with political funds scandals and deep-rooted ties to the Unification Church that have resurfaced in connection with the investigation of the 2022 assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
Local voters are taking a measured approach, the report says. Chiharu Sasaki, a Tokyo resident, said that while there is “an image that Takaichi is someone who gets things done,” she has “haven’t really proved it yet … so I’m still a bit cautious,” reflecting uncertainty about whether popularity will deliver results.
In the mix, too, is the question of turnout. The report says there are uncertainties about how much Takaichi’s appeal among younger generations—who have traditionally been low-turnout voters—will translate into votes as parties compete for control of the lower house.