Musk says space-based AI data centers on solar are next, but experts doubt

Summary

Elon Musk said this week he wants to expand the use of artificial intelligence by moving major parts of computing infrastructure off Earth and into orbit. Musk said he wants as many as a million satellites in space that could function as solar-powered data centers, and he linked the proposal to a plan to scale AI and chatbots while avoiding pressure on power grids.

The proposal also comes as Musk combines SpaceX with his AI company, xAI, and plans a major initial public offering of the combined company, according to The Associated Press. In a post on SpaceX’s website on Monday, Musk wrote that “Space-based AI is obviously the only way to scale” and added, regarding his solar ambitions, “It’s always sunny in space!”

Despite Musk’s confidence, scientists and industry experts said the concept faces technical, financial and environmental obstacles. They pointed to the difficulty of keeping computing hardware operating in space, the risk posed by malfunctioning satellites and collisions, and the constraints of repairing or replacing equipment once in orbit.

Feeling the heat

Experts said space may look cold, but it also lacks an atmosphere to help carry heat away. Josep Jornet, a computer and electrical engineering professor at Northeastern University, said an uncooled computer chip in space would overheat and melt faster than a similar chip on Earth.

Jornet said one potential approach would be building large radiator panels to push heat “out into the dark void,” and he said the technology has worked at a small scale, including on the International Space Station. For Musk’s proposed system, Jornet said it would require “massive, fragile structures that have never been built before.”

Musk responded with confidence about the timeline, saying in a preview of a Cheeky Pint podcast episode airing Thursday that he expected “in 36 months, but probably closer to 30 months” that “the most economically compelling place to put AI will be space,” and that it would then “get ridiculously better to be in space.”

Floating debris and collision risk

Other experts said orbital debris could become a limiting factor if large numbers of satellites operate close together. A satellite that malfunctions or loses orbit could create a chain of collisions that disrupt services such as emergency communications and weather forecasting, experts said.

John Crassidis, a former NASA engineer and professor at the University at Buffalo, said the risk could rise to a point where collisions become too likely, warning that the objects travel at roughly 17,500 miles per hour and that collisions could be “very violent.”

Musk has said in a regulatory filing that he has had only one “low-velocity debris generating event” in seven years running Starlink, according to the AP report. The report said Starlink has operated about 10,000 satellites, which experts contrasted with Musk’s plan for roughly a million satellites.

No repair crews, and hardware that degrades

Experts also said that even if collisions do not occur, satellites and computing hardware can fail due to wear and exposure. They said chips degrade and parts break in orbit, and that specialized GPU graphics chips used for AI could be damaged and need replacement.

Baiju Bhatt, CEO of Aetherflux, a space-based solar energy company, said that on Earth a company could send workers to a data center, replace a server or GPU, and do servicing directly. Bhatt said that in space there is no equivalent repair crew, and he said GPUs in orbit could also be damaged by exposure to high-energy particles from the sun.

Bhatt said one possible workaround is to overprovision a satellite with extra chips to replace those that fail, but he described the approach as expensive given that chips can cost tens of thousands of dollars each. He also said current Starlink satellites have a lifespan of about five years, according to the AP report.

Competition—and Musk’s launch leverage

The AP report said Musk is not alone in trying to bring AI-related computing capabilities to orbit. It cited Starcloud, a company in Redmond, Washington, which in November launched a satellite carrying a single Nvidia-made AI computer chip to test how the chip performs in space. The report also said Google is exploring orbital data centers through a venture it called Project Suncatcher, and it cited Blue Origin’s plan for a constellation of more than 5,000 satellites starting late next year with a focus on communications.

Even so, the AP report said Musk has an advantage: rockets capable of launching payloads at scale. The report said Starcloud used Musk’s Falcon rocket to put its chip into orbit last year, and that Aetherflux plans to send a set of chips it calls a Galactic Brain to space on a SpaceX rocket later this year. It also said Google may need Musk to launch its first two planned prototype satellites by early next year.

Pierre Lionnet, a research director at the trade association Eurospace, said Musk routinely charges rivals far more than he charges himself, describing a range up to $20,000 per kilo of payload versus $2,000 internally. Lionnet said Musk’s announcements are a signal that he expects to use those low launch costs to gain an advantage in what he described as a new space race.

Lionnet said, “When he says we are going to put these data centers in space, it’s a way of telling the others we will keep these low launch costs for myself,” and added, “It’s a kind of powerplay.”