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Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is balancing a crackdown at home with diplomatic overtures abroad as he seeks to avert a potential U.S. attack, according to reporting from the Associated Press. The AP said Khamenei, 86, crushed protests that swept across Iran last month and then moved to head off escalation as an American flotilla drew near, positioning the leadership’s immediate priority as preventing a U.S. strike.
AP reported that Khamenei told that if U.S. President Donald Trump strikes, “a regional war will ensue,” while Iran simultaneously opened the door to negotiations with Washington about its nuclear program, reversing his previous rejection of talks. The shift comes as the protests exposed how seriously the theocratic system is alarmed by widespread popular anger, with hard-liners responding with what the AP described as the bloodiest crackdown of Khamenei’s nearly four decades in power.
The AP report linked the protests’ fuel to a worsening economic environment, describing years of sanctions, economic mismanagement and corruption that have weakened Iran’s economy and its once-large middle class. It said that the anger expressed during January demonstrations, including chants of “Death to Khamenei!”, reflected resentment toward clerical rule as economic pressures intensified.
The domestic unrest unfolded alongside external military pressure and regional setbacks, the AP said. It cited Israeli and U.S. bombardment during last summer’s 12-day war as having heavily damaged Iran’s nuclear program, missile systems and other military capabilities, and it described Iran’s network of regional proxies—known as the “Axis of Resistance,” including Hamas and Hezbollah—as having crumbled in recent years, reducing Tehran’s ability to project influence.
AP said the crackdown itself showed the grip that Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard can impose, with thousands killed, tens of thousands arrested and the internet shut down for weeks, cutting off communications with the outside world. It added that, while authorities had faced earlier cycles of unrest, the latest bloodshed eclipsed earlier episodes in scale and in the government’s refusal to soften its approach.
The protests began, AP said, in late December in Tehran’s traditional bazaar after the rial currency plunged to a record low of 1.42 million to the U.S. dollar, then spread to cities across the country. AP said Khamenei declared “rioters must be put in their place,” giving what it described as a green light for a crackdown, and it said protesters who had been veterans of past demonstrations were stunned by the firepower security forces used on crowds when hundreds of thousands took to the streets on Jan. 8 and 9.
AP reported that activists have documented more than 6,700 people killed and are still working to verify potentially thousands more, while the government put the toll at 3,117, still higher than figures from prior crackdowns. In previous waves of unrest, AP said, authorities sometimes sought to ease anger by loosening some social restrictions or acknowledging economic woes, but in this case Khamenei’s rhetoric hardened, including describing the protests as “a coup.”
The AP report also said the government has detained tens of thousands in recent weeks and that activists portrayed the repression as escalating rather than de-escalating. It described the leadership’s approach during the protests as rejecting the earlier pattern of concession, with the leadership instead tightening enforcement and treating the protests as an existential threat to the system’s stability.
In explaining Khamenei’s rise and method of rule, AP said he transformed the Islamic Republic’s power structure when he became supreme leader in 1989, describing how he entrenched clerical authority and built the Revolutionary Guard into the dominant player in Iran’s military and internal politics. AP said the Guard oversees the ballistic missile program, has elite military capabilities and also oversees business interests that helped it dominate the economy, while serving as Khamenei’s loyal shock force.
AP said Khamenei also stymied domestic challenges, pointing to the reform movement that gained momentum after he took power and arguing it threatened the system of rule favored by hard-liners. It said unelected bodies controlled by clerics blocked major reforms and barred reform candidates from running in elections, and AP described subsequent waves of protests—including demonstrations in 2009 over vote-rigging allegations, economic protests in 2017 and 2019, and protests in 2022 after the death of Mahsa Amini while in police custody—as being crushed by the Revolutionary Guard and other security agencies.
On the external front, AP said Khamenei’s move to allow nuclear negotiations with the United States may be aimed at buying time to avert U.S. strikes, even as the U.S. and Iran remain far apart on key demands. It said Turkey, Egypt, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been working to arrange talks and that they could take place in the coming days, while Iran has opposed the main American demands to halt all nuclear enrichment and to surrender uranium stocks.
AP also said Trump has been vague about the goal of any airstrikes, describing an earlier threat focused on stopping the killing of peaceful protesters or preventing mass executions and a later shift to using the threat to press Iran to engage in negotiations. It added that some in Iran and among the diaspora have expressed hopes that the U.S. could use military force to bring down Khamenei, though AP said opponents inside Iran also argue against foreign intervention to topple the theocracy.
Finally, AP said the question of what comes after Khamenei—who is expected to face succession decisions as he grows older—casts additional complexity over the standoff. It described official succession rules as placing authority with a panel of Shiite clerics, while noting that multiple names have been touted among leading clerics, including Khamenei’s son, and it said the Revolutionary Guard has grown to become the most powerful body behind the clerical robes; AP warned that forcibly removing the supreme leader could prompt Guard commanders to seize power and trigger a bloody conflict over control in Iran, an oil-rich country with a population of 85 million.