Hawaiʻi could face the sharpest decline in high school graduates in the nation in the years ahead, setting up a policy test for the state’s school system as lawmakers and officials weigh what to do with shrinking enrollment. A projection cited by lawmakers shows Hawaiʻi’s graduating class could fall by roughly a third between 2023 and 2041, while the United States as a whole is expected to decline more modestly, raising questions about the future of small campuses in communities with fewer students.
The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education is the source of the statewide and national graduation forecasts. In the commission’s most recent report, published at the end of 2024, the U.S. is projected to see a 10% drop in high school graduates, but Hawaiʻi’s projected decline is larger—33%—over the same multi-year period.
Under the Hawaiʻi projection, public schools in the state would award diplomas to just over 7,600 students in 2041, down from about 11,500 in 2023. The same forecast points to a similar reduction for private schools’ graduating senior classes over that time frame, according to the account lawmakers and education officials are using as they debate next steps.
Concerns in Hawaiʻi have also been fueled by the state Department of Education’s experience in recent years. The department has seen its enrollment fall by nearly 12% over the past decade, and school leaders have pointed to the state’s declining birth rate and the number of families leaving Hawaiʻi in recent years.
Last year, the department discussed closing or consolidating schools, but the proposal triggered resistance connected to the slow nature of closures in the state. The department has not closed a school since 2011, when it received strong pushback from families and community members after deciding to shutter Queen Liliʻuokalani Elementary School in Kaimukī, according to the report.
In response to that history, the department changed course last fall and proposed a redistricting plan intended to avoid school closures. Still, some lawmakers argue that the state needs a faster and more structured approach to facilities and campus decisions as enrollment declines continue.
A bill introduced last week by Sen. Troy Hashimoto would establish an independent commission to review school facilities and recommend consolidation, closure or realignment of schools. The bill’s text states that decades of enrollment growth led to the construction of new campuses, and that the continuing decline in student numbers has left many facilities underutilized, while also citing tighter financial constraints that lawmakers link to possible federal cuts.
The legislation would require the commission to submit its findings to the Legislature and the governor by fall 2027. If lawmakers and the governor approve the recommendations, the Department of Education would be required to implement them following the 2028 legislative session, according to the report.