Russia-Ukraine war casualties could near 2 million as CSIS warns of ‘extraordinary price’
Russia and Ukraine could see their combined war casualties approach 2 million by spring, according to a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, adding to competing claims about the human cost of Moscow’s full-scale invasion. The CSIS estimate comes less than a month before the fourth anniversary of the Feb. 24, 2022 invasion and as the war continues through another bitterly cold winter.
In the report, CSIS said Russia has sustained the largest number of troop deaths for any major power in any conflict since World War II, and it argued that the overall picture runs counter to statements suggesting battlefield momentum in Ukraine. CSIS estimated that Russia suffered 1.2 million casualties, including up to 325,000 troop deaths, between February 2022 and December 2025.
CSIS projected that Ukraine, with a smaller army and population, has suffered between 500,000 and 600,000 military casualties, including up to 140,000 deaths. The report said that at current rates, combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties could be as high as 1.8 million and could reach 2 million by spring.
The report also highlighted how difficult it has been to verify battlefield losses because neither side provides timely figures. CSIS said both Moscow and Kyiv seek to amplify each other’s casualty totals, and it built its estimate using data and reporting that included analysis from the think tank, information from independent outlets and organizations, and interviews with state officials.
In commenting on the CSIS report, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday that the research could not be considered “reliable information” and that only Russia’s Ministry of Defense was authorized to provide information on military losses. Russia has not released battlefield-death figures since a statement in September 2022 that said just under 6,000 Russian soldiers had been killed.
Ukraine did not offer immediate comment on the CSIS report, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told NBC in February 2025 that more than 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed since the war began. The CSIS report, for its part, said that its findings relied on compilation methods that drew from independent Russian reporting, including the Mediazona project’s work on names of troops killed, as well as information published by the BBC, estimates by the British government and interviews with state officials.
CSIS also framed the wider military picture as one of attrition rather than rapid breakthroughs. The report said Russian forces were advancing at a sluggish pace after seizing the initiative in 2024, despite their larger size, and it estimated Russian forces advanced at an average rate of between 15 and 70 meters per day in their most prominent offensives.
“The report said Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is in decline as a major power,” CSIS warned, adding that “No major power has suffered anywhere near these numbers of casualties or fatalities in any war since World War II.” It described the advance as “slower than almost any major offensive campaign in any war in the last century,” and it said Russian President Vladimir Putin told his annual news conference last month that 700,000 Russian troops were fighting in Ukraine, a figure Putin also gave in 2024 and that was slightly lower in December 2023; CSIS said it was not possible to verify those troop figures.
As the reporting on losses circulated, Ukrainian officials also described strikes overnight. Officials said two people were killed near Kyiv in the Bilohorodka area and that at least nine others were injured in attacks in Odesa, Kryvyi Rih and the front-line Zaporizhzhia region.
Ukraine’s air force said Russia attacked overnight with one ballistic missile and 146 strike drones, with 103 shot down or destroyed using electronic warfare. Russia’s Ministry of Defense said its air defenses destroyed 75 Ukrainian drones overnight, including 24 shot down over Russia’s southwestern Krasnodar region and 23 more shot down over Russia-annexed Crimea; the ministry also said two drones were shot down over Russia’s Voronezh region, where Ukraine’s General Staff said Wednesday that it struck the Khokholskaya oil depot.