Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Yemen signaled Monday they were prepared to launch new attacks as the USS Abraham Lincoln arrived in the Middle East. The threats came as President Donald Trump’s administration intensified pressure on Iran over a deadly crackdown on nationwide protests, with Trump positioning the carrier “just in case” he decides to take military action against Tehran.
The escalating military posturing comes as Iran struggles with the worst unrest in decades, with thousands dead in a government crackdown that includes the country’s most comprehensive internet blackout in history. The tensions test the cohesion of Iran’s network of allied militant groups, which has weakened after recent Israeli strikes.
Militias signal readiness as carrier arrives
Iran-backed paramilitary groups in Iraq and Yemen signaled Monday their readiness to launch new attacks. Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi paramilitary group long supported by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, issued a direct warning. Ahmad al-Hamidawi of the group said in a statement: “We affirm to the enemies that the war on the (Islamic) Republic will not be a picnic; rather, you will taste the bitterest forms of death, and nothing will remain of you in our region.”
Yemen’s Houthi rebels signaled their own readiness more indirectly. A short video posted Monday showed images of a ship on fire with the caption “Soon,” paired with footage from their January 2024 attack on the Marshall Islands-flagged tanker Marlin Luanda in the Gulf of Aden. The Houthis had conducted over 100 attacks on shipping during their campaign against Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza, before halting after a ceasefire took effect.
The USS Abraham Lincoln and guided missile destroyers in its strike group arrived Monday to “promote regional security and stability,” according to U.S. Central Command. President Donald Trump has said the carrier was moved to the region as a precaution — “just in case” he decides to take military action against Iran.
Trump has outlined two explicit conditions that could trigger such action. The United States would strike Iran if it kills peaceful protesters participating in the ongoing unrest or conducts mass executions of persons arrested in the crackdown, Trump has said.
Iran’s defiant response fractures the region
A senior Iranian military official dismissed the American military posture, calling U.S. threats “an exaggeration.” Speaking on condition of anonymity to Iran’s state television, the official warned that the Lincoln’s presence was not a deterrent but “an accessible target.”
Iran’s Defense Ministry issued its own warning Monday. General Reza Talaei-Nik said any attack would be met with a response that is “more painful and more decisive than in the past,” according to Iranian state television.
Iran underscored its defiance by unveiling a banner in Tehran’s Enghelab Square over the weekend. The banner depicted a bloodied aircraft carrier with the warning: “If you sow the wind, you will reap the whirlwind.” The government also signaled its readiness by banning small private aircraft from flying within Iranian airspace on Sunday, though it carved out exemptions for the oil industry and emergency medical flights.
Lebanon’s Hezbollah, one of Iran’s staunchest allies, declined to specify how it would respond to potential military action. Hezbollah leader Sheikh Naim Kassem addressed thousands of supporters at a rally in Beirut’s southern suburbs, saying the group was “preparing for possible aggression and is determined to defend” against it. But on the question of specifics, Kassem said: “These details will be determined by the battle and we will determine them according to the interests that are present.”
Not all regional actors moved in concert with Iran. The United Arab Emirates announced Monday that it would not allow its airspace, territory, or territorial waters to be used for military action against Iran, choosing instead to stress dialogue and diplomatic resolutions.
Crackdown takes a deadly toll
Behind the military escalation lies Iran’s worst civil unrest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Protests that began on December 28 over the collapse of the Iranian currency spread rapidly nationwide and met a violent crackdown by Iran’s government.
The death toll remains contested. The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency reported the toll at 5,973 as of Monday, with the figure expected to increase as more information emerges. The group said more than 41,813 people have been arrested. The activist network’s counts have proven accurate in previous Iranian unrest and rely on a network of people inside Iran to verify deaths.
Iran’s government reported a far lower toll of 3,117, characterizing 2,427 as civilians and security forces and labeling the remainder “terrorists.” Historically, Iran’s government has undercounted or not reported fatalities from civil unrest.
The scope of the crackdown is underscored by an internet blackout the government imposed over a two-week period — what officials and observers describe as the most comprehensive blackout in Iran’s history. The blackout has severely hampered the ability to document the scale of the violence or the precise toll.
A weakened coalition faces an uncertain future
Iran has long maintained power across the Middle East through its network of allied militant groups — the “Axis of Resistance” — spanning Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and elsewhere. But the coalition has weakened significantly after Israeli strikes on Hamas and Hezbollah during its campaign in Gaza, and after Syrian rebels overthrew President Bashar Assad in a yearslong conflict in which Iran had backed his rule.
The threats from the remaining militant groups suggest some members remain willing to escalate, even as the network’s overall cohesion and capacity have diminished. Whether those signals translate to action remains unclear, with Hezbollah’s ambiguity and the coalition’s demonstrated weakness leaving the trajectory of any wider conflict uncertain.
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