Minnesota’s House special elections set up battleground in District 64A

On Tuesday, Minnesota voters will return to the polls to pick winners in two special elections for state House seats, decisions that could affect the balance of power in the chamber. The Associated Press decision notes say Republicans entered the contests holding a 67-65 advantage after two Democratic representatives were elected to other offices in November. For much of the last year, the House has operated under a power-sharing agreement between the two parties, the decision notes said.

The AP framed the races as also taking place against a backdrop of heightened public attention on immigration enforcement after recent fatal shootings in Minneapolis. The decision notes pointed to a U.S. Border Patrol agent fatally shooting a man in Minneapolis days before the election, which sparked protests and renewed calls for federal immigration officers to leave the state. Earlier in January, the notes said, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement officer shot and killed a Minneapolis woman as part of an ongoing federal immigration crackdown.

District 47A: Buck alone on the ballot

In House District 47A, the AP decision notes said Democrat Shelley Buck is the only candidate listed on the ballot, though voters can vote for a write-in candidate. The district sits east of St. Paul, with most of it in Washington County and a portion in Ramsey County. In 2024, the decision notes said, Democratic state Rep. Amanda Hemmingsen-Jaeger and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris each carried District 47A with about 61% of the vote, and Hemmingsen-Jaeger later won a special election to the state Senate in 2025.

The AP said it would treat District 47A as uncontested and call the race as soon as polls close, unless there was evidence of an organized write-in effort for another candidate. It also noted that there are no automatic recounts for state legislative races in Minnesota, with a losing candidate able to request a publicly funded recount if the margin is less than 0.5% of the total vote.

District 64A: Luger-Nikolai vs. Walsh

In House District 64A, the AP decision notes outlined a two-candidate contest between Democrat Meg Luger-Nikolai and Republican Dan Walsh. Luger-Nikolai is described as a labor attorney who represented a statewide teachers union, while Walsh runs a real estate property management company and has worked in cybersecurity and tech sales. The notes said Walsh was the GOP nominee for the seat in 2022 and 2024.

The district is entirely within Ramsey County and stretches most of the distance between St. Paul and Minneapolis. In 2024, the decision notes said, Democratic state Rep. Kaohly Her and Harris each won the district with more than 83% of the vote, and Her was elected mayor of St. Paul in 2025.

The AP said that in District 64A, Walsh would need to far outperform the roughly 15% and 17% of the vote he received in his 2022 and 2024 runs, respectively. The decision notes added that almost all of the vote is expected to be released in one or two batches, and that a race call could be possible at the first sign of an overwhelming margin.

How the AP plans to call races and report vote totals

The AP decision notes said polls close at 8 p.m. local time, which is 9 p.m. ET, and that the AP will provide vote results and declare winners in the special elections for House Districts 47A and 64A. It said Minnesota allows voters in the districts to register on Election Day at their polling places.

For how quickly results might arrive, the AP pointed to past election timing in the same districts. In the 2022 general election, it said the AP first reported results at 10:49 p.m. ET in District 47A and at 11:12 p.m. ET in District 64A, with the last vote update of the night coming at 11:50 p.m. ET in District 47A and at 11:39 p.m. ET in District 64A, each with more than 99% of the total vote counted. In the 2024 general election, the decision notes said, the AP first reported results at 1:09 a.m. ET in both districts, with tabulation ending for the night at 2:29 a.m. ET with more than 99% of total votes counted.

The decision notes also described vote casting and early voting levels from prior elections. It said District 47A had nearly 28,000 registered voters as of June 1, 2025, with about 23,000 casting ballots in 2024 and about 19,000 in 2022. In 2024, about half of the ballots were cast before Election Day, compared with about 31% in the 2022 midterm elections. For District 64A, the decision notes said it had nearly 25,000 registered voters as of that date, with nearly 25,000 casting ballots in 2024 and more than 21,000 in 2022, and that about 41% of ballots in 2024 were cast before Election Day compared with about 27% in the 2022 midterm elections.

As of Thursday night, the AP decision notes said, just shy of 300 ballots had already been cast in District 47A and about 400 ballots in District 64A, and that in previous elections in the relevant Minnesota counties, results from absentee voting were released alongside in-person Election Day voting throughout the night.

In its race-call approach, the AP decision notes said it does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it determines there is no scenario that would allow trailing candidates to close the gap. It said that if a race has not been called, it will continue covering newsworthy developments such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory, and will make clear that a winner has not yet been declared and explain why.