Iran’s government announced Wednesday a first official death toll of 3,117 people killed in nationwide protests that began December 28, a figure significantly lower than independent monitoring groups’ estimates. The Interior Ministry and the Foundation of Martyrs and Veterans Affairs, an official government body, released the figures on state television, even as the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency reported the toll had reached at least 4,902.
The divergence highlights the difficulty of verifying casualty figures in Iran, where the government has imposed an internet shutdown since January 8 and restricted journalists’ ability to report independently on the crackdown. The announcement came as Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi issued his most direct threat yet to the United States, and as a U.S. aircraft carrier group moved westward toward the Middle East.
Of the 3,117 deaths announced by Iran’s Interior Ministry and the Foundation of Martyrs and Veterans Affairs, the government said 2,427 were civilians and security forces, without elaborating on the remaining toll.
The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, citing a network of activists inside Iran who confirm all reported fatalities, said the death toll had reached at least 4,902 as of Thursday, with many more feared dead. Other international human rights groups have similarly reported higher figures than the Iranian government’s tally.
The Associated Press said it had been unable to independently assess the death toll, in part because authorities cut access to the internet and blocked international calls into the country. Iran has also restricted journalists’ ability to report locally on the aftermath, instead relying on state television claims that refer to demonstrators as “rioters” motivated by the United States and Israel, without offering evidence.
The death toll exceeds that of any other round of protest or unrest in Iran in decades, and recalls the chaos surrounding the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Although there have been no protests for days, international observers have expressed concerns the toll could increase significantly as information gradually emerges from inside the country under a government-imposed internet shutdown since January 8.
Thousands Arrested, Executions Feared
Nearly 26,500 people have been arrested, according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency. Comments from Iranian officials have led to fears that some of those detained may be put to death in Iran, one of the world’s top executioners.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, speaking through an opinion piece published by The Wall Street Journal, said the “violent phase of the unrest lasted less than 72 hours” and sought to blame armed demonstrators for the violence. Videos that escaped Iran despite the internet shutdown appear to show security forces repeatedly using live fire to target apparently unarmed protesters, a pattern Araghchi did not address.
“Unlike the restraint Iran showed in June 2025, our powerful armed forces have no qualms about firing back with everything we have if we come under renewed attack,” Araghchi wrote, referring to the 12-day war Israel launched on Iran in June. “This isn’t a threat, but a reality I feel I need to convey explicitly, because as a diplomat and a veteran, I abhor war.”
He added that “an all-out confrontation will certainly be ferocious and drag on far, far longer than the fantasy timelines that Israel and its proxies are trying to peddle to the White House. It will certainly engulf the wider region and have an impact on ordinary people around the globe.”
Araghchi’s comments likely refer to Iran’s short- and medium-range missiles. Iran relied on ballistic missiles to target Israel in the June war and left its stockpile of shorter-range missiles unused — weapons that could be fired to target U.S. bases and interests in the Persian Gulf. Restrictions on U.S. diplomats traveling to bases in Kuwait and Qatar have already been imposed, according to the AP.
Military Escalation and Diplomatic Consequences
Araghchi’s invitation to the World Economic Forum in Davos was rescinded over the killings, while a U.S. aircraft carrier group moved west toward the Middle East from Asia. The USS Abraham Lincoln passed through the Strait of Malacca, a key waterway connecting the South China Sea and Indian Ocean, by Tuesday, according to ship-tracking data reviewed by the AP. Naval and other defense officials have not confirmed the carrier strike group is headed to the Middle East, but its current heading and location in the Indian Ocean means it is only days away from moving into the region.
U.S. military images released in recent days showed F-15E Strike Eagles arriving in the Middle East and forces in the region moving a HIMARS missile system, the type used extensively by Ukraine after Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.
Regional Tensions Rise
The National Army of Kurdistan, the armed wing of the Kurdistan Freedom Party, claimed Wednesday that Iran launched an attack against one of its bases near Irbil, some 320 kilometers (200 miles) north of Baghdad. The group said one fighter was killed and released mobile phone footage showing fire in the predawn darkness. Iran has not acknowledged the attack, which would be the first foreign operation Tehran has launched since the protests started.
A handful of Iranian Kurdish dissident or separatist groups — some with armed wings — have long found a safe haven in northern Iraq’s semiautonomous Kurdish region, a point of friction between the central government in Baghdad and Tehran. The Kurdistan Freedom Party has claimed it launched attacks in Iran as the crackdown on demonstrations took place, according to semiofficial Iranian news agencies.
U.S. President Donald Trump has set two conditions that would trigger a more forceful American response: mass executions or the killing of peaceful protesters by the Iranian government.