China has met an initial goal to buy U.S. soybeans, but the deal’s durability faces uncertainty as President Donald Trump’s tariff policy continues to shift, the Associated Press reported.
The U.S. agreement with China was announced in October and included a commitment for China to buy 25 million metric tons of American soybeans in each of the next three years. AP reported that China has now fulfilled an initial commitment to purchase 12 million metric tons, though it remains unclear whether the broader trade agreement can withstand new tariff threats described by Trump.
Earlier, Trump said he would impose 25% tariffs on any country that buys from Iran, which he said would include China. The AP also reported that last weekend he threatened 10% tariffs on eight of America’s closest allies in Europe if they continue to oppose U.S. efforts to acquire Greenland. An Iowa State University agricultural economist, Chad Hart, told AP that the quick changes create doubt about the binding nature of the soybean agreement.
“Those new tariffs — what does that mean for this agreement? Does it throw it out? Is it still binding? That’s sort of the game here now,” Hart said, according to AP. The AP noted that China had paused U.S. soybean purchases last summer during its trade war with Washington, then agreed to resume buying after Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met in South Korea and agreed to a truce.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business that China had completed the most recent purchases and that the parties were looking ahead to next year’s 25 million-ton target. Bessent said, “He told me that just this week they completed their soybean purchases, and we’re looking forward to next year’s 25 million tons,” adding, “They did everything they said they were going to do,” AP reported. AP also said Bessent met with China’s Vice President He Lifeng in Davos, Switzerland, on Tuesday during a major economic forum.
AP reported that the USDA data showed China had bought more than 8 million tons of U.S. soybeans by Jan. 8, and that daily reports indicated additional orders after that date, ranging from 132,000 tons to more than 300,000 tons. AP noted that preliminary USDA data released last fall had raised doubts about whether China would meet the October agreement, citing a slow start and a lag before purchases appear in official numbers.
Beyond the immediate purchases, AP said China has shifted much of its soybean buying to Brazil and Argentina in recent years to diversify sources and find cheaper deals. AP cited World Bank data showing Brazilian beans accounted for more than 70% of China’s imports last year, while the U.S. share was down to 21%.
For U.S. farmers, AP reported that Trump is planning to send roughly $12 billion in aid intended to help them withstand the trade war, but farmers said the payments do not eliminate their broader cost pressures. AP reported that soybean farmers would get $30.88 per acre while corn farmers would receive $44.36 per acre, and that sorghum payments would be $48.11 per acre, based on a USDA formula on the cost of production.
The AP reported that farmers also face uncertainty in pricing and markets. Soybean prices jumped above $11.50 per bushel after the agreement was announced but had fallen to about $10.56 per bushel by Tuesday, AP reported. Cory Walters, an associate professor at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln’s Department of Agricultural Economics, said the uncertainty has made it harder for farmers to plan.
“Everything is changing — the land rental market, the fertilizer market, the seed market and it’s all pinching the farmer when they go to do their cash flows. The ability to make a decision is tougher now because of all the uncertainty in the market,” Walters said, according to AP.
Funk reported from Omaha, Nebraska. Associated Press writers Didi Tang and Fatima Hussein contributed from Washington.