An ice storm is forecast to emerge late this week and continue through Sunday, with forecasters warning of a “potentially catastrophic” weather event that could coat roads, trees and power lines with devastating ice across a wide swath of the South from Texas to the Carolinas. The system will result from arctic air diving south from Canada colliding with moisture streaming up from the Gulf of Mexico, the National Weather Service said Tuesday.
“If you get a half of an inch of ice — or heaven forbid an inch of ice — that could be catastrophic,” said Keith Avery, CEO of the Newberry Electric Cooperative in South Carolina, citing the potential for ice to weigh down power lines and trigger widespread outages.
The storm poses particular danger for southern states, which have less equipment for snow and ice removal than northern regions. With temperatures expected to remain below freezing for days after the system passes, ice accumulations could persist on roads and sidewalks for an extended period.
Atmospheric setup creates dangerous collision
The storm’s danger stems from an unusual convergence of weather systems. An extremely cold arctic air mass is diving south from Canada, while warm, moist air streams eastward from the Gulf of Mexico.
According to Bryan Jackson, a National Weather Service meteorologist, “a large sprawling vortex of low pressure centered over Hudson Bay” is dominating weather across North America. “When the cold air meets the rain,” Jackson said, “the likely result will be ‘a major winter storm with very impactful weather, with all the moisture coming up from the Gulf and encountering all this particularly cold air that’s spilling in.’”
Forecasters cautioned that “it can be challenging to predict precisely which areas could see rain and which ones could be punished with ice.”
Impacts across the South
Texas faces some of the storm’s earliest threats. As the arctic air mass slides south through the state on Friday, “we’re expecting rain to move into much of the state,” said National Weather Service forecaster Sam Shamburger. Low temperatures could plunge into the 20s or even the teens in parts of Texas by Saturday, with a wintery mix possible in the northern part of the state. “It’s going to be a very difficult forecast,” Shamburger cautioned, noting significant uncertainty about ice and snow amounts across north and central Texas.
The threat extends eastward through the weekend. An atmospheric river of moisture is forecast to pull precipitation across the Gulf Coast states, continuing across Georgia and the Carolinas. In metro Atlanta, if significant ice strikes, conditions could persist through Monday, with temperatures expected to reach lows around 22 degrees Fahrenheit and highs near 35 degrees. The National Weather Service’s Atlanta office noted that “global models are painting a concerning picture of what this weekend could look like, with an increasingly strong signal for ice storm potential across North Georgia and portions of central Georgia.” These conditions mean “ice that forms on roads and sidewalks might stick around,” forecasters said.
Travel hazards and preparation
The approaching storm threatens significant disruption to transportation. More than 100 vehicles crashed into each other or slid off an interstate southwest of Grand Rapids, Michigan on Monday, illustrating the hazards drivers face. Southern states have considerably less equipment to remove snow and ice from roads, and the extremely cold temperatures expected after the storm could prevent ice from melting for several days. Major hub airports in Dallas, Atlanta, Memphis and Charlotte are also expected to be impacted.
As of Tuesday, residents in affected areas were already taking precautions. In Little Rock, Arkansas, a steady stream of customers visited Fuller and Son Hardware to stock up on supplies. “Right now parents of young children are getting sleds,” said James Carter, the company’s director of operations. “People are also getting shovels, ice-melting products and covers for outside faucets to keep them from freezing, since low temperatures in the Little Rock area are forecast to fall into the teens.”