WASHINGTON (AP) — The International Monetary Fund said in an update to its World Economic Outlook that global growth is expected to be 3.3% this year, the same pace it projected for 2025. The fund also said the 2023?—the article context—represents an upgrade from its earlier 3.1% forecast for 2026 made in October.
In a blog post accompanying the latest World Economic Outlook update, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Tobias Adrian wrote that the world economy “continues to show notable resilience despite significant US-led trade disruptions and heightened uncertainty.”
The IMF said the resilience is expected to persist this year, in part because of investment in artificial intelligence in North America and Asia. It said that stronger investment is helping offset the drag from President Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policies.
For the United States, the IMF forecast growth of 2.4% this year. It said that would be an upgrade from the fund’s October forecast for 2026, which was 2.1%, and it said the comparison point for 2025 growth was also 2.1%. The IMF attributed the U.S. outlook to the “strongest pace of technology investment since 2001.”
For China, the IMF projected 4.5% growth in 2026, up from the 4.2% forecast it made in October. The fund said the improvement was partly tied to a trade truce with the United States that reduced American tariffs on Chinese exports.
The IMF said India is expected to be the world’s fastest-growing major economy, replacing China in that ranking. It forecast that India’s growth would slow from 7.3% last year to 6.4% in 2026, adding that last year’s result had been boosted by an unexpectedly strong second half.