China’s population shrank again in 2025 as the number of births fell to the lowest rate since 1949, according to new government statistics reported by The Associated Press.
The AP reported that China’s total population in 2025 was 1.404 billion, down 3 million from the previous year. The decline marked the fourth consecutive year in which the population decreased.
Births also continued to decline. The birth rate in 2025 was 5.63 per 1,000 people, which the AP said was the lowest on record since 1949. The number of new babies born was 7.92 million in 2025, down 1.62 million, or 17%, from 2024.
The AP said the slight uptick in births in 2024 did not last. It reported that births declined for seven years in a row through 2023.
Officials have pushed policies aimed at encouraging more births in the years after China ended its longstanding one-child policy. The AP described government efforts that span cash subsidies and tax changes, including measures that cover condoms and certain child-related services such as kindergartens and day care centers, as well as matchmaking.
Stuart Gietel-Basten, director of the Center for Aging Science at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, said it would be difficult to increase births without addressing “big structural issues.” In comments carried by the AP, he said, “It’s these big structural issues which are much harder to tackle, whether it’s housing, and work and getting a job and getting started in life and expectations around education…,” adding, “It’s gonna be difficult to make a major change in those number of births until those are addressed.”
Another factor the AP cited for 2025 was the Chinese zodiac’s “snake” year, which is widely considered less favorable for having a child. The AP reported that China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency said the snake year “is shaking off its negative connotations.”
The AP also linked the demographic shift to economic concerns. It reported that China has 323 million people over 60, or 23% of the population, and that the share of older residents continues to rise while the working-age population shrinks. Gary Ng, a senior economist for Asia Pacific at French investment bank Natixis, told the AP that “the bigger concern is whether economic growth can stay afloat with a shrinking population.”
China reported 5% annual economic growth for 2025, based on official data cited by the AP, though the report said some analysts expect growth to slow. Ng also said China will eventually need to reform its pension system and broaden the tax base to cover higher government spending, according to the AP.
The AP said the government has tried limited policy levers to encourage childbearing, including incentives and changes to taxes. It reported that in July, China announced cash subsidies of 3,600 yuan ($500) per child. The AP also said China removed contraceptives, including condoms, from a value-added tax exemption list in 2025, meaning condoms were taxed at 13% beginning Jan. 1, while kindergartens and daycares and matchmaking services were added to the exemption list.
In the AP account, Gietel-Basten said young women want workplace and other policies that ensure they are not penalized for taking time off to have children. He said, “It shouldn’t be this massive penalty,” the AP reported.