A narrow path to House control

House control is at the center of the 2026 midterm elections, with Democrats and Republicans each targeting a relatively small share of the 435 seats in the chamber. The AP report says Democrats are targeting nearly 40 Republican-held districts, while Republicans are aiming for a few dozen seats held by Democrats.

The report also points to uncertainty that could be decisive in a close House: “dozens of House members have announced they are not running for reelection,” leaving a record number of seats up for grabs at this point in the midterm election cycle.

What history suggests—and why 2026 may differ

The AP charts look back at a long-running midterm pattern. Since 1932, the president’s party has lost an average of 26 House seats, and only three times has the president’s party gained seats, the report says. It adds that the last time the president’s party gained House seats was 2002, when Republicans picked up seats in the first national elections after the 9/11 attacks that made George W. Bush a wartime president at the time of the midterms.

The report says another dynamic has held since 1992: every president has seen House control shift to the opposition in the first midterm after flipping control of the Oval Office. But it also says the 2026 situation does not compare perfectly to previous transitions because Trump is “in a second but nonconsecutive term.”

At a recent House Republican retreat, Trump acknowledged the historical pattern, saying, “It’s an amazing phenomenon.”

Lessons from the 2025 elections

The AP report also turns to the results of 2025 elections as potential clues about the midterms. It says Democrats “romped in November,” winning elections across the country. In House special elections last year, it says Democrats outperformed their 2024 presidential election results, often by double digits, and also flipped Republican-held legislative seats nationwide.

The report cautions that off-year elections are not perfect predictors of midterm outcomes. Even so, it says Democrats saw similar trends in 2017 before their 2018 midterm victories during Trump’s first term, and that Republicans had similar strong performances in 2009, the first year of Barack Obama’s presidency, ahead of a GOP wave in 2010.

How much Trump could matter

On the question of whether Trump’s influence will help Republicans in individual districts, the AP report says Trump and House Republicans are going “all-in” together.

Georgia Rep. Brian Jack, the report says, is the Republicans’ chief candidate recruiter. The report quotes Jack saying many GOP recruits got into their races because they are “very inspired by President Trump,” and because voters will see nominees “talking about the president’s successes.” It also quotes the report’s discussion of recruitment strategy as linked to keeping Republicans closely connected to the president.

At the same time, the report says Trump’s approval is relatively low. It cites Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research polling showing Trump’s approval was 40% in January, and says the number has remained consistently low through his second term. The report also says Gallup polling has found that presidential approval in the lead-up to midterms has largely correlated with party performance, citing examples including Bill Clinton’s approval decline heading into the “Republican Revolution” of 1994 and subsequent rebound when House Democrats gained seats four years later.

The AP report also adds that a new Gallup survey found 45% of U.S. adults identify as independents, and says Gallup’s analysis found independents appear increasingly driven by unhappiness with the party in power.

Campaign issues: affordability at the front

The report says pocketbook issues are expected to dominate the campaigns. It cites a December AP-NORC poll in which 4 in 10 people mentioned health care costs, placing the issue about even with immigration. It says about one-third cited cost-of-living in general and about 2 in 10 U.S. adults wanted the federal government to focus on housing costs.

It says Democrats are hammering affordability across topics ranging from groceries to health care and argues that Trump won in 2024 because of inflation but has not fixed the problem. The report says Trump has referred to the affordability “hoax” while also urging Republicans to reach a deal on health insurance premium subsidies and promising populist action on housing costs.

The AP report says Trump wants Republicans to sell a sweeping domestic policy law passed last summer as a tax cut for working-class voters. It says Democrats respond by arguing that tax advantages in the law are tilted toward wealthier Americans and that the law cuts health care and other programs.

Candidates still matter in swing districts

In addition to national narratives, the AP report says both parties insist candidates still matter, especially in swing districts. It quotes Illinois Rep. Lauren Underwood, a chief candidate recruiter for Democrats, saying, “It’s really district-by-district.” Underwood also said, “It’s not just going to be a narrative of ‘the suburbs reject Trump’ or something like that.”

The report says Democrats were especially sorry to see Rep. Jared Golden, a moderate representing much of small-town and rural Maine, forgo reelection. It says Golden represents one of 13 Democratic-held districts that Trump won in 2024, and says Republicans expect to nominate former two-term Gov. Paul LePage.

On Democratic recruitment, the report says Elaine Luria—described as a military veteran and former congresswoman—is trying to reclaim a Virginia swing district that has not changed substantially since she won it in 2018.

The AP report also describes how gerrymandering and court battles could affect the map heading into the elections. It says Republicans began this Congress with a 220-215 advantage, but that Trump pushed GOP-led states to draw new maps intended to increase the number of congressional districts where Republicans have an advantage. It says Democratic-led states responded with their own plans, and that the redistricting contest was led by Texas, run by Republicans, and California, run by Democrats—two of the largest states.

The report says that overall Republicans appear to have increased their odds by a handful of districts, while noting that several states are either still considering new maps or have revisions being challenged in court. It adds that if the Supreme Court guts a key provision of the Voting Rights Act, some Republican-controlled states could theoretically move quickly to eliminate Democratic advantages in districts where nonwhite voters have sway.

In short, the report says, the national map is up in the air. It says a final version of the maps could help Republicans keep a majority, or Republicans could increase GOP-friendly districts yet still lose House control if voter discontent flips enough districts. In that scenario, it says the gerrymandering would mean a smaller new majority for Democrats.

AP Polling Editor Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux in Washington contributed to this report.