Exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi on Thursday laid out aspirations for Iran if its Islamic Republic theocracy is toppled, and experts said his plan appears aimed largely at U.S. President Donald Trump rather than primarily at Iranians on the ground.
The plan includes the kinds of priorities that experts said align with Trump’s stated approach, the Associated Press reported. Activists also described a crackdown by security forces during the protests that has killed thousands, with the death toll reported by an Iranian-linked advocacy group that the AP said it could not independently confirm due to communications restrictions.
Trita Parsi, an executive vice president at the Quincy Institute and an Iran author, said Pahlavi is struggling to secure Trump’s approval. Parsi said, “He’s really struggling to win Trump’s approval, to give the impression he has that strong support, but it doesn’t seem to be working,” and added that the outreach reflects a lack of confidence and a lack of a base of support. “He’s trying to get support from the U.S. government because he’s not trying to do a revolution from below, but he’s trying to get installed from above. That’s a reflection of the lack of confidence and shows he has a real lack of a base of support,” Parsi said.
The AP reported that Pahlavi’s strategy, as characterized by experts, is intended to position him as a potential leader if nationwide protests succeed in ousting the Islamic Republic, while his ability to rally support inside Iran remains unclear. Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, said Pahlavi is tailoring his message to appeal to U.S. priorities. “He’s trying to tick the boxes of everything that can correlate with Trump,” Citrinowicz said.
Citrinowicz also described what he said was confusion among protesters about who they are calling for in the streets. He said, “People are yelling ‘Pahlavi’ in the streets of Iran, not because they actually want him, but because there’s no other name to yell.” Citrinowicz said decades of theocratic rule have left limited room for opposition figures to coalesce and that Pahlavi remains recognizable. “Nearly 50 years of theocratic rule has left little opportunity for major opposition figures to coalesce, leaving Pahlavi as one of only a few recognizable faces,” Citrinowicz said. He added that he does not see Pahlavi as a unifying successor, saying, “They don’t want to replace one dictatorship with another, and he’s not a unifying figure,” and that “He has been trying to build himself as the role of the successor, but it’s not there.”
Pahlavi has pushed for protests to take to the streets, and the AP said authorities shut down Iran’s internet and launched a crackdown last week. On X, Pahlavi posted, “The fall of the Islamic Republic and the establishment of a secular, democratic government in Iran will not only restore dignity to my people, it will benefit the region and the world.”
The AP said Trump has held reservations about Pahlavi. The president frequently described him as a “nice guy” in interviews while expressing doubts about whether Iranians would accept his leadership. Trump told Reuters on Wednesday, “He seems very nice, but I don’t know how he’d play within his own country,” and said, “And we really aren’t up to that point yet.” Trump added, “I don’t know whether or not his country would accept his leadership, and certainly if they would, that would be fine with me.” The AP said Pahlavi posted his video on X soon after the Reuters interview.
In Iran, state media has characterized the demonstrations with blame aimed at monarchists, and the AP said Iranian state media blamed “monarchist terrorist elements” for the recent protests. On Thursday, the Student News Network, described by the AP as believed to be close to the Revolutionary Guard’s Basij force, broadcast interviews with people on the street who were dismissive of Pahlavi. One person told the network, “He’s making a big mistake. Tell him to get lost,” while another yelled, “Death to the shah!”
The AP reported that Pahlavi’s video presenting a post-theocracy plan was made in English rather than Farsi. Citrinowicz said the choice reflects an effort to appeal to Trump: “Pahlavi’s video on his post-theocracy plan was made in English, not Farsi, because he’s trying to appeal to Trump, rather than the Iranian people,” Citrinowicz said.
The protests began Dec. 28 over the collapse of the Iranian rial currency, with Iran’s economy squeezed by international sanctions levied in part over its nuclear program, according to the AP. The AP said it could not independently confirm the death toll figure of 2,637 reported by the Human Rights Activists News Agency, and noted that Iran’s government has not provided overall casualty figures for the demonstrations.