Wisconsin Democrats pursue statehouse trifecta for first time in 16 years

MADISON, Wis. — Wisconsin Democrats enter 2026 pursuing something they have not achieved in 16 years: simultaneous control of the governor’s office and both chambers of the state legislature. Court-ordered redistricting, an open governor’s race and a midterm election cycle historically favorable to the party out of power in Washington have put a so-called trifecta within reach, according to party officials and strategists.

A Democratic sweep in November would allow the party to expand Medicaid, increase public school funding and restore collective bargaining rights for public workers — reversing central planks of the conservative agenda Republicans have maintained since taking full control of state government in 2010.

“It’s a difficult time in national politics,” said Democratic Assembly Minority Leader Greta Neubauer, “but we’re hopeful about the future and have been working for many years to be in a position where a Democratic trifecta is possible in Wisconsin and our state is able to go in a new direction.”

How the path opened

Republicans solidified control of Wisconsin in 2010, when they gained legislative majorities and Scott Walker was elected governor — a period that became known as the “Cheesehead Revolution.” Walker championed tax cuts, restricted collective bargaining for public-sector workers and pushed voter identification requirements through the legislature, aided by district maps drawn to favor Republican candidates.

That terrain shifted when the liberal-controlled Wisconsin Supreme Court ordered new legislative boundaries to replace the Republican-drawn maps. November’s legislative elections will be the first conducted under those new district lines. Democrats need to flip two seats in the Senate and five in the Assembly to win majorities in both chambers.

The governor’s race is open for the first time since 2010, after Gov. Tony Evers decided against seeking a third term. Democrats have never held the Wisconsin governor’s office for more than eight consecutive years.

The Democratic field

Former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes and current Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez are the leading Democratic candidates for governor. Barnes, who lost the 2022 U.S. Senate race to Republican Sen. Ron Johnson by just under 27,000 votes, reported raising $555,000 in his first 29 days as a candidate. Rodriguez, who entered the race first in July, reported raising $650,000 for the year.

“Let’s finally get a blue trifecta in Wisconsin in 2026!” Barnes said in a December fundraising appeal.

Rodriguez made a similar pitch on social media. “Wisconsin has a real shot at a Democratic trifecta next year,” she posted on X. “Let’s go win it.”

The Democratic field also includes two current state lawmakers, the top elected official in Milwaukee County, the former state economic development director and Evers’ former top aide.

Republicans respond

U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, a staunch Trump supporter and the presumptive Republican frontrunner for governor, reported raising more than $2 million since entering the race in September. He faces Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann in the Republican primary; Schoemann raised $1 million last year.

Brian Reisinger, who worked on one of Walker’s campaigns and has also worked for Johnson, acknowledged the stakes. “If there’s a Democratic trifecta, Republicans in Wisconsin have to be ready for all kinds of things that they fought for for decades to be long gone,” he said.

Republican Assembly Speaker Robin Vos said he was confident despite what he described as a year with “wind at our face,” and said Democrats were spending too much time on opposition to President Donald Trump rather than articulating a governing agenda. “Their issues are all focusing on fighting what Donald Trump is delivering on,” Vos said.

Reisinger said “the reality is that the electorate is going to remain evenly divided for a long time.”

Caution within the party

Some Democrats urged against assuming the structural advantages would be enough. Melissa Baldauff, a strategist who formerly worked for Evers, said the party had not yet secured a win. “A lot of the ingredients for success are there, but there’s no guarantees,” she said. “It’s not going to be just the nature of things lining up for this to be a good year for Democrats. That doesn’t guarantee anything. It takes a lot of hard work, it takes good candidates.”

Longtime Wisconsin liberal activist Scot Ross pushed the party to offer a concrete governing agenda rather than running on the trifecta goal alone. “Trifecta isn’t a strategy and it’s not a message,” he said. “I love that Dems in Wisconsin want to talk aggressively about getting power, but people have to believe you will use that power to actually make your lives better.”

Supreme Court race signals financial momentum

Democrats also hold a substantial financial advantage in the April race for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, where liberals already hold a majority and are seeking to extend it. The liberal candidate reported raising $2 million compared to $200,000 for her Republican-backed opponent.

Wisconsin remains fiercely contested at the presidential level — Trump won the state in both 2016 and 2024. Democrats are also keeping an eye on 2028, when Republican Sen. Ron Johnson’s Senate term expires.