In 2025, the United States reversed course on its recent emissions progress, releasing 2.4% more heat-trapping gases from fossil fuel combustion than it did in 2024, a study released Tuesday by the Rhodium Group found. Researchers said the jump was closely tied to a cool winter that increased building heating needs and to higher natural gas prices that affected the mix of fuels burned for electricity and heating. They also pointed to a noticeable rise in power demand from data centers and cryptocurrency mining.
Rhodium Group said the increase reflected a combination of weather, energy markets, and electricity consumption rather than immediate impacts from federal policy rollbacks. The study’s authors said environmental policy changes associated with President Donald Trump’s administration were not a significant factor in the 2025 emissions increase because they had only been put in place this year.
Ben King, a co-author of the Rhodium study and a director in Rhodium’s energy group, estimated that the United States released about 5.9 billion tons (5.35 billion metric tons) of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2025. He said that total represented an increase of about 139 million tons (126 million metric tons) compared with 2024.
King said the cool 2025 winter drove more heating of buildings. He said that heating demand typically relies on natural gas and fuel oil—both of which are major greenhouse gas emitters. He also said data centers and cryptocurrency mining added to electricity demand in a way that required more power generation, including from plants that burn coal.
Rhodium Group also linked part of the increase in emissions to fuel switching driven by prices. King said rising natural gas prices helped produce a 13% increase in coal power, after coal power had shrunk by nearly two-thirds from its peak in 2007. King cautioned that the uptick did not mean a full return to coal dominance, saying that while emissions increased, coal was not expected to “dominate the sector.”
The study examined how quickly other drivers might show up in the data as policy changes take effect. King said proposed rollbacks of environmental policies by the Trump administration had not been in place long enough to influence 2025 results, but he said they could become more noticeable in later years. He said researchers would need additional years of data to assess whether the 2025 increase would persist.
Beyond the 2025 jump, Rhodium found that solar generation rose by 34% and that “zero-carbon emitting” energy sources supplied 42% of American power. King said it would be important to watch what happens if the Trump administration ends solar and wind subsidies and discourages their use. He argued that even with changes to incentives, the underlying economics still favor renewables in many places.
Other experts not involved in the Rhodium report said the 2025 increase was a warning sign. Jonathan Overpeck, dean of the University of Michigan’s environment school, said the emissions rise is “likely a harbinger of what’s to come” as the U.S. continues policies that favor legacy fossil fuels, while other parts of the world move toward low-carbon technology based on renewables and batteries. Overpeck said that shifting toward fossil fuels would harm both the U.S. economy and air quality.
Bill McKibben, a longtime climate change activist, also criticized the direction he said the country is taking, calling it “so incredibly stupid that the U.S. is going backwards on this stuff.” The Environmental Protection Agency said it was not familiar with the Rhodium Group report and said it was “carrying out our core mission of protecting human health.”
The Rhodium study also compared expectations set before the Trump administration took office to what the researchers now project. King said that before the administration took office, Rhodium projected that U.S. greenhouse gas emissions would fall by between 38% and 56% from 2005 levels by 2035. He said the projection has shifted so that the projected drop is now expected to be about one-third less.