Senate Democratic leaders said they are entering 2026 believing they can win the majority in November, but warned that the math leaves little margin for missteps. The top Democratic message is that the party’s path has widened compared with the start of last year, though Democrats still expect a demanding series of victories to overcome a GOP advantage in the current chamber.
The Democrats’ latest burst of confidence followed former Rep. Mary Peltola’s announcement that she will run for the Senate in Alaska, a development Democrats described as giving them a critical fourth statewide candidate in a state where Republican senators are seeking reelection this year. Speaking to The Associated Press on Tuesday, Senate Democratic leader Charles Schumer said Peltola’s candidacy offers Democrats a wider opportunity to compete, adding: “I say it’s a much wider path than the skeptics think, and a much wider path than it was three months ago and certainly a year ago.”
Schumer framed the broader effort as dependent on winning specific states rather than chasing a single political selling point. Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats, while the Democratic caucus holds 47 members, including two independents. Democrats said they must net four seats nationally to edge Republicans out of the majority, and they described the remaining work as both electoral and internal, involving primary battles and defenses in competitive general-election races.
Democrats’ slate in Republican-held states includes candidates Schumer highlighted as examples of party recruitment they believe can make contests winnable. Among the names Democrats cited were former three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio, former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper in North Carolina, and two-term Gov. Janet Mills in Maine. But Democrats also acknowledged that these candidates are not automatic bets: Brown and Peltola both lost reelection in 2024, while Cooper and Mills faced different competitive pressures, including primary challenges in Maine.
The party also said age has remained a political liability as voters react to a leadership-heavy Democratic roster. After President Joe Biden stepped out of the 2024 race amid concerns about his age, Schumer and other Democratic leaders have not adjusted toward younger candidates, and the AP report cited that Schumer, 75, has recruited candidates who are older, including Mills and Brown in their 70s. Lis Smith, a national Democratic strategist, said voters “sent a very clear message in 2024 that they’re sick of the gerontocracy” and added that some recruits, including in Maine, appear to ignore that message.
Schumer said winning the Senate remains the priority and argued that Democrats should not evaluate candidates through a single lens, saying, “It’s not young versus old. It’s not left versus center. It’s who can best win in the states.” He said Democrats should look at candidates as options that can succeed in their particular states, not as representatives of a broader generational or ideological argument.
Even with the general-election goal in view, Democrats said they must first navigate Democratic primaries that reflect divisions inside the party. In Maine, progressive veteran and oyster farmer Graham Platner has been endorsed by independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and the AP report noted concerns among some Democrats about potential liabilities tied to Platner’s insurgent appeal. The report also pointed to controversies linked to past social media posts and a tattoo tied to Nazi imagery, which Democrats said could complicate the path to the general election.
In Michigan, Democrats face a primary and recruitment challenge tied to Sen. Gary Peters’ retirement, leaving an open seat in a state Trump carried narrowly. The report said Republicans have unified behind former Rep. Mike Rogers, while Democrats must contend with a crowded August primary after failing to recruit Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Crowded or contentious Democratic primaries were also described in Minnesota, Texas, and Iowa, forcing the party to put resources into contests outside its core Senate majority path.
The AP report also described tension between some Democratic senators and the party leadership’s midterm approach. Sen. Chris Van Hollen is part of an informal group of Democratic senators known as Fight Club and said the group objected to what it sees as Senate Democrats’ campaign arm — controlled by Schumer — “wading into certain Democratic primaries.” Van Hollen said of endorsing more progressive candidates, “So, yes, we’re taking a look at all of them.”
Republicans, meanwhile, said they see hurdles for Democrats even if the Democratic confidence has improved. Betsy Ankney, political director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee in 2020, acknowledged Democrats’ desire to argue competitiveness but characterized Trump’s presidential victories in Alaska and Ohio in 2024 — by 13 and 11 percentage points, respectively — as enormous challenges. Ankney said Republicans are “rightly focused” on “real tangible targets in Georgia, in Michigan,” which she called “very real pickup opportunities,” adding that “It’s not just about where the Democrats can play. It’s about where we can play, too.”
Democrats said their Senate majority effort likely depends on specific results. They said it almost certainly hinges on Sen. Jon Ossoff winning reelection in Georgia, where Trump won by 2.2 percentage points in 2024, and on holding Michigan, where Peters’ retirement creates an open seat in a state Trump carried by 1.4 percentage points. The party also pointed to broader political conditions as potential tailwinds into the campaign season.
Democrats cited survey findings suggesting a shift in party affiliation among Americans, with Gallup reporting that 47% of U.S. adults identify with or lean toward the Democrats and 42% identify with or lean Republican. The AP report described this as the first time since Trump’s first term that Democrats have held a party-identification advantage. The report said Gallup’s analysis found that independents were moving toward Democrats largely due to souring attitudes toward Trump rather than increased goodwill toward Democrats.
The AP report also included the view of veteran Republican pollster Ed Goeas, who said the shifting political environment could create problems for Republicans as the year progresses. Goeas said independents moving for reasons tied to disaffection could “affect these Senate races,” and he predicted House Republicans could lose their majority, while arguing Republicans were assuming the economy and overall environment would improve before voters lock their preferences into place. He said, “I think they are going to end up getting frustrated going into the summer because, first of all, the economy is not on all levels improving. It’s going to be a target-rich environment for Democrats,” adding, “It’s going to be close.”