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China’s auto exports climbed 21% in 2025, driven by larger shipments of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said Wednesday, even as domestic demand for passenger cars slowed. The association said automakers continued to step up sales abroad as they faced intense competition in China’s crowded home market.
The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said exports of “new energy vehicles” doubled from the previous year to 2.6 million units in 2025. It also said overall vehicle exports from China passed 7 million units, up 21% compared with the previous year.
Passenger-car demand in China was mixed. The association said passenger car sales rose 6% last year to 24 million units, but sales in December fell 18% year-on-year, a sign of weakening momentum after earlier support.
The association said automakers received help from government trade-in subsidies meant to encourage people to switch to EVs, but demand slowed after the payments were curtailed. It pointed to the near-term effect of subsidy changes as automakers weigh pricing pressure at home.
Analysts cited by the report suggested export growth could keep accelerating, particularly to Europe amid a dispute over China-made EVs. The report said China and the European Union agreed on steps to resolve their standoff over exports of China-made electric vehicles to the bloc, which analysts said would likely drive more Chinese EV sales to Europe.
Cui Dongshu, the general secretary of the China Passenger Car Association, predicted that China’s EV exports to the EU would rise by an average of about 20% each year between 2026 and 2028. Deutsche Bank estimated that China’s passenger vehicle exports would increase 13% year-on-year in 2026, framing overseas markets as offering relatively higher profitability for Chinese automakers.
S&P Global Ratings said overseas revenue remains limited for most Chinese automakers, but that leading players such as BYD are exceptions. Stephen Chan, an associate director at S&P Global Ratings, said overseas contribution for BYD and other automakers is expected to rise as exports expand, while key destinations for 2025 volumes included Russia, Latin America, the Middle East, Europe and Southeast Asia, accounting for roughly 70% of shipments.
The report said wealthier markets such as the U.S. and Canada present higher hurdles because steep EV tariffs remain in place. It also pointed to the ongoing pressure on demand and pricing at home, citing BYD’s December deliveries across all vehicle types as 420,398, down 18% from a year earlier.
Paul Gong, head of China Autos Research for UBS, said domestic passenger car sales are likely to drop in 2026. The report said China’s subsidies for new passenger cars are changing in 2026 from flat rates to a system based on new car prices, which analysts at S&P said could add pressure to sales of cheaper vehicles, noting that more than half of China’s new passenger vehicle sales come from cars priced below 150,000 yuan ($21,510). S&P analysts wrote that, to secure sales, automakers could target improving product features or subsidizing consumers out of their own pockets.