Democrats see a narrow path to regain Senate control
Senate Democratic leaders said they see a plausible route to winning the majority in November, but characterized it as tight and heavily dependent on winning a set of competitive races while also navigating internal party fights in Democratic primaries. The assessment came as the party enters the 2026 election cycle with Republicans controlling Washington, a shift that has left Democrats seeking a clear path to regain the chamber.
Democrats said their momentum improved after former Rep. Mary Peltola announced Monday that she will run for the Senate in Alaska. Party leaders said the bid matters because it adds a fourth statewide candidate for Democrats, with name recognition in a state where Republican senators are seeking reelection.
Nationally, Democrats said they must net four Senate seats to edge Republicans out of the majority. At present, Republicans hold 53 seats while the Democratic caucus has 47 members, including two independents.
Schumer, speaking to The Associated Press, argued Democrats’ route to the majority is broader than skeptics believe. “I say it’s a much wider path than the skeptics think, and a much wider path than it was three months ago and certainly a year ago,” Schumer said Tuesday. He said Democrats are focused on finding candidates who can win in their states rather than applying a single narrow lens.
Democratic strategists and party leaders also pointed to a broader challenge for the campaign: Democrats must win in states that Donald Trump carried in 2024, and several of the party’s top Senate recruits are older. While Schumer highlighted that he has recruited candidates with statewide success in pivotal states—including former Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio, former Gov. Roy Cooper in North Carolina, and Gov. Janet Mills in Maine—critics inside and outside the party have questioned whether the recruits reflect what voters signaled in 2024.
Lis Smith, a national Democratic strategist, argued voters sent a message in 2024 about age and candidate selection. “Voters sent a very clear message in 2024 that they’re sick of the gerontocracy. They’re sick of Democrats putting up old candidates and that they want some new blood,” Smith said. She added that she believes some recruits, including in Maine, appeared to ignore that message.
Candidate strength is there, but not a guarantee
Schumer said the slate of recruits should be evaluated based on winning odds rather than a single factor. “It’s not young versus old. It’s not left versus center. It’s who can best win in the states,” he said. “So, these are all really good candidates, and I don’t think you look at them through one narrow prism. You look at who can win.”
The AP VoteCast survey of the electorate found that none of the four statewide candidates in GOP-held states had runaway popularity going into 2024. The survey said roughly half of voters had somewhat or very favorable views of all four, with Cooper slightly higher and Brown slightly lower.
Democrats also said age and recent electoral performance remain part of the calculus. The outlook is complicated by what leaders described as the difficulty of holding competitive seats, especially in states Republicans appear positioned to defend.
In Maine, for example, Mills is finishing her second term as governor but faces a competitive primary challenge from progressive veteran and oyster farmer Graham Platner. In the party’s other targeted states, Brown and Peltola both lost reelection in 2024, according to the AP account. The Democrats’ broader challenge, party leaders said, is that even strong recruits do not function as guarantees.
Primaries and internal divisions could shape November outcomes
Before Democrats can test their general-election appeal, they said they must address primaries that expose divisions inside the party. In Maine, Democratic Sen. Gary Peters’ retirement in Michigan has opened a seat, where Republicans have unified behind former Rep. Mike Rogers and Democrats are working through a crowded August primary after failing to recruit Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
The AP also described contentious primaries in other states on Democrats’ map, including Minnesota, Texas and Iowa, which party leaders said require extra resources even in states not central to the path to a four-seat gain. In Iowa, Texas and Minnesota, Democrats said they are facing internal contests that could determine which candidates emerge for general-election matchups.
Democrats also flagged tensions around party leadership’s approach to midterm campaigning. Sen. Chris Van Hollen said an informal group of Democratic senators known as Fight Club has criticized what it sees as the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm—controlled by Schumer—“wading into certain Democratic primaries.” Van Hollen told AP that the group is taking a look at endorsements for more progressive candidates, saying, “So, yes, we’re taking a look at all of them,” when asked about endorsing additional progressive candidates.
In Maine, the AP report said Platner has been endorsed by independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and that while Platner has demonstrated strong fundraising, some Democrats worry that insurgent appeal could become a liability if he wins the nomination. The AP also cited past social media posts and a tattoo linked to Nazi imagery as part of the controversies surrounding Platner.
Republicans cite 2024 margins, Democrats cite shifting polling
Republicans acknowledged Democrats’ push to make the case for competitiveness but said Trump’s 2024 victories in many of the same states reflect a steep climb for Democrats. Betsy Ankney, political director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee in 2020, pointed to Trump’s presidential wins in Alaska and Ohio by 13 and 11 percentage points, respectively, according to the AP account.
Ankney said Republicans are “rightly focused, on real tangible targets in Georgia, in Michigan,” and called those “very real pickup opportunities.” Democrats said their shot at the majority likely depends in part on specific races: they said Democrats’ prospects include Sen. Jon Ossoff winning reelection in Georgia, where Trump won in 2024 by 2.2 percentage points, and holding Michigan after Peters’ retirement left an open seat in a state Trump carried by 1.4 percentage points.
Ankney said Democrats’ path depends on both where Democrats can play and where Republicans can play, adding, “It’s not just about where the Democrats can play. It’s about where we can play, too.”
Polling offers a small break as independents move
Despite the challenges, Democrats said broader political conditions offer reasons to be more optimistic than a year ago. A new Gallup survey found 47% of U.S. adults identify with or lean toward the Democrats and 42% identify with or lean toward the Republicans—changes Democrats pointed to as a potential advantage in party affiliation.
The AP report said Gallup’s analysis suggested independents are moving toward Democrats because of dissatisfaction with Trump, rather than an increase in goodwill toward Democrats themselves. The report also said Democratic favorability remains low, and that as more Americans identify as independents, they tend to gravitate toward the party out of power—whether it is Democrats or Republicans.
Veteran Republican pollster Ed Goeas said he believes the environment heading into the election year could affect Senate races, warning that Republicans are assuming the economy and political conditions will improve. “That creates an environment that will affect these Senate races,” Goeas said, predicting that House Republicans could lose their majority and saying “I think they are going to end up getting frustrated going into the summer” as the economy does not improve broadly.
Goeas said, “It’s going to be close.”