China’s trade surplus surged in 2025 to a record of almost $1.2 trillion, the government said Wednesday, even as exports to the United States fell after President Donald Trump returned to office and escalated tariffs.
The report cited customs data showing exports rose 5.5% for the year to $3.77 trillion, while imports flatlined at $2.58 trillion. It also said the 2024 trade surplus was over $992 billion.
For December, exports climbed 6.6% from a year earlier in dollar terms, topping economists’ estimates and surpassing November’s 5.9% year-on-year increase, the report said. Imports in December were up 5.7% year-on-year, compared with November’s 1.9% rise.
The surplus surpassed the $1 trillion mark for the first time in November, when it reached $1.08 trillion in the first 11 months of last year, the report said. Economists expect exports to continue supporting China’s economy this year despite trade friction and geopolitical tensions.
The export gains also followed a shift away from the United States as trade war pressure intensified. The report said China’s exports to the U.S. fell 20% for the whole of 2025, with the decline offset by shipments to other markets in South America, Southeast Asia, Africa and Europe.
For destination shifts cited in the report, exports to Africa surged 26% in 2025, while exports to Southeast Asian countries jumped 13%. Exports to the European Union rose 8%, and shipments to Latin America increased 7%, it said.
The report attributed support for the export picture partly to strong global demand for computer chips and other devices, along with demand for materials needed to make them. It also said car exports grew last year, with auto exports surging 21% in 2025 to more than 7 million units, driven by electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, citing the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
Among the largest export categories described, mechanical and electrical items rose 8.4% in 2025 from a year earlier. The report said China also exported more grain and fertilizer, while exports of furniture, clothing, shoes and other labor-intensive products fell.
China’s officials said the external outlook for trade in 2026 is difficult but stable. Wang Jun, vice minister of China’s customs administration, told reporters in Beijing that China faces a “severe and complex” external trade environment in 2026, but added that China’s “foreign trade fundamentals remain solid.”
Analysts said exports are likely to remain a growth driver even as domestic demand faces headwinds. Jacqueline Rong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas, said, “We continue to expect exports to act as a big growth driver in 2026.” The report also said HSBC economists Erin Xin and Taylor Wang wrote that even if exports sustain neutral or positive growth, more of China’s growth drivers will need to come from domestic demand.
The report said a prolonged property downturn following a crackdown on excessive borrowing, which led to defaults by developers, continued to weigh on consumer confidence and domestic demand. It said government trade-in subsidies had encouraged consumers to buy newer, more energy efficient items, but that the policy impact so far had been limited.
Rong said domestic demand growth was expected to stay tepid, adding, “In fact, the policy boost to domestic demand looks weaker than last year — in particular the fiscal subsidy program for consumer goods.” In autos, the report said domestic passenger car sales rose 6% in 2025 but fell back toward the end of the year as subsidies were scaled back or phased out in some areas.
Gary Ng, a senior economist at French investment bank Natixis, forecast that China’s exports will grow about 3% in 2026, less than the 5.5% growth in 2025. With slow import growth, Ng expects China’s trade surplus to remain above $1 trillion this year.