JERUSALEM — Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, a breakaway territory, has thrust the unrecognized statelet into international focus and triggered an uproar across the Horn of Africa and the Middle East, analysts and officials said.
Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said the move threatens Somalia’s sovereignty and that Somalis would not accept their country being used by a foreign power accused of harming civilians—referring to Palestinians in Gaza. In a televised address, he warned that establishing foreign military bases would further destabilize the region and said Somali territory cannot be divided by a document signed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “Somali territory cannot be divided by a piece of paper written by Israel and signed by (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu,” Mohamud said.
Somaliland’s foreign minister, Abdirahman Dahir Adan, defended the relationship and said it is aimed at becoming broader than recognition alone. In an interview with The Associated Press, Adan said it was “a mutually beneficial friendship,” and that “Somaliland gains open cooperation with Israel in trade, investment and technology.” He said Somaliland also aims to join the Abraham Accords, a set of bilateral agreements between Israel and Arab and Muslim-majority countries.
The decision also has reignited a dispute over a prior proposal, described in U.S. and Israeli outreach discussed with AP last year, in which Israel had approached Somaliland about taking in Palestinians displaced from Gaza. Adan said there has been no discussion with Israel about taking in Palestinians from Gaza, adding that he was hopeful other countries would follow Israel’s recognition of Somaliland. “Before Israel’s recognition, we were worried so much that other powers like Turkey and China would squeeze us,” Adan said, referring to two of Somalia’s top benefactors. He also dismissed Mogadishu’s criticism, calling Somalia a “failed state.”
Israeli officials defended the move as part of a wider connection between democratic states. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar visited Somaliland last week, and said it was “a natural connection between democratic countries — both in challenging regions.” Israel and Somaliland have said their ties would include defense cooperation, but officials declined to elaborate, with Adan saying there are “no limits as to what areas we can work with.”
Beyond diplomacy, the recognition has raised immediate security warnings. After Israel’s recognition, al-Shabab, an al-Qaida affiliate based in Somalia, threatened Somaliland. In an audio message posted on one of the group’s sites, al-Shabab spokesperson Sheikh Ali Mohamud Rageal said: “Members of the movement reject Israel’s attempt to claim or use parts of our land. We will not accept this, and we will fight against it.”
Analysts said the timing is especially sensitive because Somaliland lies near maritime routes that have been disrupted by the Houthis’ campaign against ships. Andreas Krieg, a military analyst at King’s College London, said a limited presence could be useful for maritime security goals, adding, “If you are trying to watch, deter or disrupt Houthi maritime activity, a small footprint (in Somaliland) can provide disproportionate utility.” Mahad Wasuge, director of Somali Public Agenda, similarly warned that recognition could affect the level of violence in the region, saying it “could increase violence or bring proxy wars, particularly if the Israelis want to have a presence in the port of Berbera to counter threats in the Red Sea.”
The diplomatic backlash has extended to regional organizations. The 57-nation Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the African Union condemned Israel’s recognition. Somalia also moved quickly after the recognition, annulling security and defense agreements with the United Arab Emirates, a key ally of Israel in the region. Somalia said the agreements were meant to safeguard “unity, territorial integrity, and constitutional order.”
The changes have also highlighted shifting regional alignments. Asher Lubotzky of Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies said Somaliland is one of several examples of an emerging Israel-UAE alliance seeking to align with U.S. foreign policy and shown willingness to counter extremist groups. He said, “We know the Israeli interest is with the Houthis, but Somaliland also has an interest in some kind of an external protection.”
Other countries were described as being put on alert, including Turkey—Somalia’s largest investor—along with China, which has viewed Somaliland with suspicion over its ties with Taiwan. Ethiopia, which borders Somaliland and sees it as a route to the sea, remained silent as it assessed what might come next.