The findings highlight a structural tension heading into November’s midterm elections: both parties must appeal to a swelling, increasingly moderate independent bloc while their own bases have grown more ideologically uniform and less tolerant of centrist positioning.
WASHINGTON — Nearly half of U.S. adults — 45% — now identify as political independents, up from roughly one-third two decades ago, according to a new Gallup survey that found younger Americans are rejecting both major parties at historically high rates.
The Democratic Party has regained a partisan edge among this growing bloc: 47% of U.S. adults now identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, compared with 42% who are Republican or lean Republican, Gallup found. That reversed a three-year advantage Republicans held while former President Joe Biden was in office, returning the numbers to roughly where they stood during President Donald Trump’s first term.
Gallup’s analysts cautioned that the Democratic gain appears to be driven by independents’ growing dissatisfaction with Trump rather than by warmer feelings toward Democrats. Trump’s approval among independents has fallen steadily, while Democrats’ own favorability remains historically low, the survey found.
Young Americans are leading the exit from both parties
Generation Z and Millennials — adults born between 1981 and 2007 — now identify as independents at majority rates, Gallup found. Among Gen Z adults specifically, 56% call themselves independents. That is higher than the 47% of Millennials who identified as independents in 2012 and the 40% of Gen X adults who did so in 1992, according to Gallup’s analysis.
By contrast, only about 4 in 10 Gen X adults and roughly 3 in 10 older adults currently identify as independents.
The generational pattern suggests the trend is unlikely to reverse on its own, Gallup said, unless the parties change how younger people perceive them.
Independents are increasingly the political center
Americans who call themselves moderates have increasingly migrated to the independent column over the past decade, while both major parties have shed their moderate wings.
About 47% of independents described their political views as “moderate” in 2025, Gallup found. By comparison, about 3 in 10 Democrats and about 2 in 10 Republicans said the same.
The parties’ bases have moved in the opposite direction. About 6 in 10 Democrats now call themselves liberal — a share that is among the highest Gallup has recorded — while moderate identity within the party has fallen to near its lowest point. Among Republicans, 77% consider themselves conservative, also at or near a record high for the party, while the moderate share has similarly declined.
A recurring dynamic with uncertain durability
Independents have long been the largest political group in the United States, and their numbers have grown over the past 15 years. But the group’s party leanings have shifted with whichever party holds power.
Gallup’s analysis characterized the current Democratic lean among independents as a function of their dissatisfaction with the party in power rather than lasting loyalty — the same dynamic that benefited Republicans during Biden’s presidency. Frequent, dramatic swings in political power may become more common as a result, Gallup said.
The challenge for both parties heading into November’s midterm elections, according to the survey, is that appealing to the expanding moderate-independent pool risks alienating the most committed voters in each party’s ideologically polarized base.