The exchange underscores Cuba’s deepening vulnerability: the U.S. operation that toppled Maduro cut off Venezuela’s estimated 35,000-barrel-per-day oil deliveries to the island — a supply Cuba had relied upon even as widespread blackouts already persisted across its crumbling electric grid.
HAVANA — Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel said Monday that his government is not in negotiations with the United States, a day after President Donald Trump warned Cuba to “make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE.”
Díaz-Canel posted a series of statements on X following Trump’s Sunday message, writing that “for relations between the U.S. and Cuba to progress, they must be based on international law rather than hostility, threats, and economic coercion.” Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez reposted the statements.
The Cuban president drew a narrow exception to his denial: “There are no talks with the U.S. government, except for technical contacts in the area of migration,” he wrote.
A lifeline severed
Trump’s warning came after a U.S. military operation on Jan. 3 killed 32 Cuban officers in Venezuela and led to the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro — cutting off in the process Venezuela’s oil deliveries to Cuba.
Before the attack, Cuba was receiving an estimated 35,000 barrels of oil per day from Venezuela, along with roughly 5,500 barrels daily from Mexico and approximately 7,500 from Russia, according to Jorge Piñón of the Energy Institute at the University of Texas at Austin, who tracks the shipments.
Widespread blackouts had already persisted across Cuba amid fuel shortages and a crumbling electric grid even while Venezuelan oil flowed. Energy experts said a further loss of petroleum would deepen the island’s multiple crises, which stem from economic paralysis during the COVID-19 pandemic and a substantial increase in U.S. sanctions following the first Trump administration.
Mexico stays cautious
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Monday again declined to provide data on current oil shipments to Cuba or say whether such shipments would increase when Venezuelan supplies end. She said Mexico’s fuel supply to Cuba is not a concern because “there is enough oil” — even as production at state-owned Petróleos Mexicanos has been steadily declining. Sheinbaum reiterated that her government was willing to facilitate dialogue between the U.S. and Cuba if both sides agreed.
Economic weight
Cuba’s communist government has said U.S. sanctions cost the country more than $7.5 billion between March 2024 and February 2025 — a staggering sum for an island whose tourism revenue reached some $3 billion annually at its peak in the preceding decade. The crisis has also driven a large wave of emigration, primarily to the United States, where Cubans had enjoyed immigration privileges as exiles until those were curtailed before Trump closed U.S. borders.
Expert views diverge
Andy S. Gómez, retired dean of the School of International Studies and senior fellow in Cuban Studies at the University of Miami, said he saw Díaz-Canel’s statements as an effort to buy time.
“They had every opportunity when President Obama opened up U.S. diplomatic relations, and yet they didn’t even bring Cuban coffee to the table,” Gómez said. “Of course, these are desperate times for Cuba.”
Michael Galant, senior research and outreach associate at the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, D.C., said he believed Cuba might be willing to negotiate on topics such as migration and security, and that Trump is not in a rush to press for a resolution.
“Trump is hoping to deepen the economic crisis on the island, and there are few costs to Trump to try and wait that out,” Galant said. “I don’t think it’s likely that there will be any dramatic action in the coming days because there is no rush to come to the table.”
Cuba’s conditions for dialogue
Díaz-Canel said Cuba had always been willing to hold dialogue with any U.S. administration, including the current one, but insisted on terms: “sovereign equality, mutual respect, principles of International Law, and mutual benefit without interference in internal affairs and with full respect for our independence.”
Voices from Havana
In Havana, reactions among residents ranged from resignation to defiance. Oreidy Guzmán, a 32-year-old food delivery worker, said he did not want harm to come to Cubans “but if something has to happen, the people deserve change.” Meilyn Gómez, a 37-year-old homemaker, said she did not believe a U.S. invasion was imminent. Rubén Benítez, a 57-year-old bartender, said he expected mass resistance to outside pressure: “eleven, eight or nine million will take to the streets to defend what little we have left.”