President Donald Trump’s push to reshape voting districts for partisan advantage ahead of the 2026 midterm elections is entering a critical phase as state legislatures convene and legal fights continue over mid-decade redistricting. The Associated Press report said the question now is whether Republican- and Democratic-led states will accelerate remapping of U.S. House seats or whether momentum will fade after a series of high-stakes setbacks.
Jeffrey Wice, director of the Elections, Census and Redistricting Institute at New York Law School, described the moment as a crossroads for the mid-decade redistricting movement, saying it could either gain speed or have been an attempt by Trump to influence elections in states where that pressure “fizzled.” The AP said the coming sessions in Virginia and Florida are central to watching whether the effort expands, stalls, or becomes constrained by courts and politics.
The report traced Trump’s redistricting strategy to an unusual step taken in July, when he called on Texas Republicans to redraw the congressional map for partisan advantage even though there was no new census data to base new lines on. The AP said that move helped kick off a mid-decade battle that has not been common since the late 1800s, with several states approving Republican-friendly House districts, including Texas, Missouri and North Carolina.
In Ohio, which had to redraw because of its state constitution, the AP reported that lawmakers used the situation to enact a more favorable House map for Republicans. It said Ohio’s Oct. 31 action marked a turning point the same day that Virginia’s Democratic-led legislature took an initial step toward redistricting, and that later developments included California voters approving new House districts that help Democrats and other state-level decisions that reduced or redirected momentum.
The AP said Trump’s approach suffered a major setback Dec. 11, when Indiana’s Republican-led Senate defeated a redistricting plan that could have helped the GOP win all nine of the state’s U.S. House seats rather than seven. The AP said the net result of 2025 redistricting jockeying could translate to three additional Republican seats, but that outcome remained uncertain because legal challenges continued in some states and because there is no guarantee parties will win the districts they redraw.
Virginia could be next up on remapping as its legislature returns, with the AP reporting that the agenda will include a proposed constitutional amendment to allow mid-decade redistricting in response to other states. The AP said the amendment would also require approval by a statewide vote before new districts could be implemented, meaning the timeline would need to move quickly for candidates to qualify for races in redrawn districts later this year.
The AP reported that Democrats currently hold six of Virginia’s 11 U.S. House seats and that some have discussed trying to gain as many as four additional seats through a new map. It said Virginia Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger has embraced redistricting but has not committed to a specific plan, telling the AP: “I will look at any map that is kind of reasonable and keeping communities compact and together,” adding that “ultimately, it’s up to the people of Virginia to choose whether or not to move forward with the referendum.”
Florida is also positioned as a key test because Republicans hold 20 of the state’s 28 U.S. House seats, according to the AP report. The AP said DeSantis planned to wait until April to call a special session on congressional redistricting, citing time for a possible U.S. Supreme Court ruling on a Voting Rights Act provision. The AP report said DeSantis argued that such a ruling could affect “at least one or two” Florida districts.
The AP added that any redistricting that would benefit Republicans could face challenges in court because a voter-approved Florida constitutional provision prohibits drawing district boundaries to favor or disfavor a political party or incumbent. That legal uncertainty, combined with the timing of any special session, is part of what will determine whether Florida’s actions translate into tangible changes for the House.
Resistance to redistricting efforts also remains a theme in several targeted states. The AP reported that some Democrats have urged Illinois and Maryland to redraw already heavily Democratic districts to try to gain one additional seat in each state, but said those plans appeared to lack traction as legislative sessions begin. In Illinois, the report said House Speaker Pro Tem Kam Buckner told the AP there is “no active push” for congressional redistricting and added there is “no appetite to reopen something that will consume enormous time, energy and, frankly, political capital without a compelling justification.”
In Maryland, the AP said Democratic Gov. Wes Moore created a special commission to recommend a new congressional map, but that Senate President Bill Ferguson remained opposed. The AP reported that Ferguson also insisted that a majority of residents do not want new districts. In Kansas, where some Republicans want to redraw districts to try to gain an additional seat, the AP reported that House Republicans have not reached the two-thirds support needed to override a likely veto by Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly.
As Kansas prepares for its annual legislative session, the AP said House Speaker Dan Hawkins told reporters he has no plans to hold a vote on congressional redistricting during that session, saying, “I do not have the votes.”