Trump-allied lawsuits could reshape who counts in the 2030 census

Two federal lawsuits filed by allies of President Donald Trump could determine who gets counted in the 2030 census and what methods the Census Bureau may use — outcomes that would affect congressional representation and the distribution of $2.8 trillion in federal dollars to the states, the Associated Press reported Saturday. The cases are pending in Florida and Louisiana, and the Census Bureau is pushing ahead with its planning for the next decennial count regardless of the litigation.

Both suits challenge fundamental aspects of how the bureau has operated for decades. If either set of challengers prevails, all 50 states could face redrawn political districts, according to the Elias Law Group, a Democratic-aligned firm seeking to intervene in both cases out of concern that the Justice Department will not mount a vigorous defense.

The two lawsuits

America First Legal, co-founded by Stephen Miller, Trump’s deputy chief of staff, filed the Florida lawsuit. It contests methods the bureau has used to protect participants’ privacy and to ensure that people in group-living facilities such as dormitories and nursing homes are counted, and it seeks to have 2020 census figures revised.

“This case is about stopping illegal methods that undermine equal representation and ensuring the next census complies with the Constitution,” Gene Hamilton, president of America First Legal, said in a statement.

The Louisiana lawsuit was filed by four Republican state attorneys general and the Federation for American Immigration Reform, which opposes illegal immigration and supports reduced legal immigration. That case seeks to exclude people who are in the United States without legal status from the figures used to redraw congressional districts.

Federal defense and intervention bids

In both cases, outside groups represented by the Elias Law Group have sought to intervene out of concern that the Justice Department might reach settlements favorable to the challengers. So far, the court record contains nothing to suggest government attorneys have done anything to undermine the Census Bureau’s defense in either case, according to the AP.

In the Florida case, a judge allowed a retirees’ association and two university students to join the defense as intervenors. Justice Department lawyers have asked that the case be dismissed.

In the Louisiana lawsuit, government lawyers argued that three League of Women Voters chapters and Santa Clara County in California had not shown evidence that department attorneys would do anything other than robustly defend the Census Bureau. A judge has not yet ruled on their request to intervene.

A ruling for the challengers in the Florida case would produce “a needlessly chaotic and disruptive effect upon the electoral process” if all 50 states had to redraw their political districts, Blake McCarren, a spokesman for the Elias Law Group, wrote in an email, according to the AP.

Constitutional foundation and fiscal stakes

The 14th Amendment to the Constitution states that “the whole number of persons in each state” should be counted for the numbers used in apportionment — the process that determines how many congressional representatives and Electoral College votes each state receives. Those same figures also guide the distribution of $2.8 trillion in federal dollars to the states for roads, health care and other programs.

Congressional Republicans have separately introduced legislation to exclude noncitizens from the apportionment process. States with the largest populations of people in the country without legal status include California, Texas, Florida and New York, according to the Pew Research Center, meaning such a change could reduce the apportionment count in both Republican- and Democratic-leaning states.

Census Bureau presses forward

The Census Bureau intends to conduct practice runs in six locations this year as part of its planning for the 2030 count, the AP reported, proceeding on that work regardless of the pending litigation.

The Louisiana lawsuit was filed at the close of the Biden administration and put on hold in March at the request of the Commerce Department, whose lawyers said they needed time to consider the position of the new Trump administration leadership. State attorneys general in that case asked in December to have the hold lifted. Justice Department lawyers argued against doing so, citing the bureau’s ongoing 2030 planning. “At this stage of such preparations, lifting the stay is not appropriate,” department lawyers wrote, according to court filings cited by the AP.

Trump’s second term ends in January 2029, before the 2030 census is scheduled to be conducted, meaning the count itself will be carried out under a different president.