Iran’s leadership is facing “incredible pressure” as the largest protests in years against the Islamic theocracy continue, the Associated Press reported. The protests and the government crackdown have pushed a death toll “into the hundreds,” while connections to the outside world remain cut.
Government hard-liners have threatened to attack the U.S. military and Israel over support for the demonstrators, AP reported. For now, AP said President Donald Trump told CNN that Iran has signaled it wants to negotiate with Washington, and the story said there is “no sign” of a Venezuela-style U.S. military intervention coming.
The AP explainer linked the pressure on Iran’s leadership to multiple stressors, beginning with the damage the establishment and military sustained during last year’s war with Israel. It said Iran’s leadership and military were badly weakened in a 12-day conflict in June, and that U.S. airstrikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities during the war contributed to the weakening. AP reported that several military leaders were killed, air defenses were nearly wiped out, and the missile stockpile shrank.
The story described Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as having ultimate power and noted that he has ruled since 1989. AP said he was out of sight for days during and after the war, and added that he has no successor, describing the leadership uncertainty as a factor affecting both the theocracy and Iran’s people.
AP also cited Siavush Randjbar-Daemi, a senior lecturer at the University of St Andrews in Scotland. Randjbar-Daemi said establishment pragmatists might be willing to concede certain things to Washington but that “they’re really marginalized.” He also said the problem remains that finding a “Delcy Rodríguez -like figure within the Iranian establishment is very hard,” referring to the Venezuelan vice president-turned-interim leader after the U.S. removed Nicolás Maduro.
In AP’s account, Iran’s reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian has limited power to make the sweeping economic or other changes protesters want. The AP story said the United States may be able to apply pressure at a moment when the establishment is weaker, citing Kamran Matin, an associate professor of international relations at the University of Sussex. Matin said the U.S. has the chance to apply pressure on Iran’s leadership at the “weakest point in the Islamic Republic’s 47-year history.”
The article also said Iran has “few friends,” citing both regional and global constraints. It said the war last year highlighted Iran’s diminished regional clout, especially after Israel targeted Iran’s armed proxies during the war in Gaza. AP listed Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, Houthi rebels in Yemen, and other armed groups in Syria and Iraq as examples of those proxies.
Globally, AP said Iran remains isolated, describing Russia as distracted by its war in Ukraine and citing China’s stance. AP said China, a buyer of Iranian oil, expressed hope on Monday that the Iranian government and people are “able to overcome the current difficulties and maintain national stability.”
AP said international concerns also remain high over Iran’s battered nuclear program. It reported that Tehran has long insisted the program is for peaceful purposes while Western powers worry about highly enriched uranium necessary for a nuclear weapon.
The story tied economic pressure to sanctions and exchange-rate weakness. AP said after Iran’s negotiations with the U.S. deadlocked, the United Nations in September reimposed sanctions that freeze Iranian assets abroad, halt arms deals, and penalize ballistic missile development. It said the sanctions further strained Iran’s economy, and reported that in late December the Iranian rial plunged to a record low of 1.42 million to the U.S. dollar. AP said prices of food and other necessities shot up, prompting traders and shopkeepers in major Tehran markets to take to the streets.
AP described how anger shifted from economic grievances to a broader challenge to the theocracy, saying leaderless protests ignited in other cities. It said decades of state repression have limited organized opposition groups inside Iran, but added that people have repeatedly taken to the streets when enforcement—such as the harsh implementation of wearing headscarves—or crushing inflation has gone too far.
Looking ahead, AP said some Iranians watched the U.S. military’s capture of Nicolas Maduro earlier this month and wondered if their leader might be next. It said that on Sunday U.S. lawmakers sought to cool such expectations, citing a remark by Sen. Mark Warner, vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, to CNN. AP said Warner noted that popular discontent with the U.S. role in the 1953 coup in Iran helped lead to the 1979 Islamic revolution that brought the current theocracy to power.
The story also included an analyst’s view of how U.S. threats might be intended to work. It quoted Kamran Matin saying Trump’s “primary aim is to change the behavior of the Iranian regime, not necessarily the regime itself” and that the aim is to extract concessions such as on nuclear enrichment or missile range.
AP said there have been no public signs of significant fractures emerging in the Iranian government as stress grows, and that it sees no major political challengers waiting. It said opposition in the diaspora is divided among various organizations, and reported that support has been spotted for exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, the son of the shah forced from power in 1979, though it is “not clear how strong or widespread” that support may be.
Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy program director with the European Council on Foreign Relations, told AP that Iran’s leaders face “a perilous moment” but are “no strangers to chaos.” AP quoted her saying the regime has survived wars, sanctions, and political upheaval through “ruthless force, pragmatism and leadership unity,” and that “the off-ramps have now significantly narrowed.” Like other analysts cited, she said change would best come from Iranians themselves.