UN forecasts global growth at 2.7% this year as tariffs weigh

The United Nations forecast on Thursday that the global economy will grow 2.7% this year, slightly lower than its estimate for 2025, as higher U.S. tariffs, economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions weigh on the outlook.

The UN said global growth would edge up to 2.9% in 2027, still below the average 3.2% growth between 2010 and 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic hurt economies around the world. The UN’s estimate for 2025 was 2.8%.

In a statement, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said: “A combination of economic, geopolitical and technological tensions is reshaping the global landscape,” adding that it is “generating new economic uncertainty and social vulnerabilities.”

Despite that caution, the UN economists said there was “unexpected resilience” to the sharp increases in U.S. tariffs last year. They pointed to solid consumer spending and easing inflation as factors that helped sustain growth, while warning that underlying weaknesses persist.

In the report “World Economic Situation and Prospects,” the UN said growth in Europe, Japan and the United States is projected to hold broadly steady. For the United States, the UN forecast that growth declined from 2.8% in 2024 to an estimated 1.9% in 2025, as strong consumer spending and AI-related investment were partly offset by weak residential and commercial construction.

The UN projected a “very small rise” in U.S. growth to 2% this year, followed by 2.2% in 2027. For Japan, the UN forecast growth of 0.9% this year and 1% in 2027, below 1.2% estimated for 2025, saying private consumption is expected to recover gradually while exports—particularly of automobiles—will likely remain constrained by higher U.S. tariffs and policy uncertainty.

For the European Union, the UN said growth is expected to fall from 1.5% in 2025 to 1.4% in 2026 “as higher U.S. tariffs and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty dampen exports,” before increasing to 1.6% in 2027.

On the brighter side, the UN said some large developing economies—including China, India and Indonesia—are expected to continue to see solid growth. It also said prospects for many low-income and vulnerable countries are expected to remain less favorable, even as it forecast stronger growth for the world’s least developed countries, rising from 3.9% in 2025 to 4.6% in 2026 and 5% in 2027. The report singled out Bangladesh, Ethiopia and Tanzania for stronger economic performances.

Regionally, the UN forecast East Asia growth at 4.4% this year, down from 4.9% last year, and projected China’s economy to grow 4.6% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027—below the estimated 4.9% expansion in 2025. It said a temporary easing of trade tensions with the United States, including targeted tariff reductions and a one-year trade truce, helped stabilize confidence.

In Africa, the UN projected growth would increase from an estimated 3.9% in 2025 to 4% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027, while warning that high debt and climate-related shocks pose significant risks. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the UN said the outlook remains broadly resilient, forecasting growth to decline from an estimated 2.4% in 2025 to 2.3% in 2026 before edging up to 2.5% in 2027.