San Jose concedes 2030 carbon neutrality goal is off track as emissions inch up

The acknowledgment marks a significant setback for one of the most aggressive municipal climate timelines in the country, and signals that San Jose now faces politically difficult choices if it is to close a widening gap before 2030.

San Jose’s City Council formally acknowledged Dec. 2 that the city is not on track to reach carbon neutrality by 2030, after the city’s most recent greenhouse gas inventory found emissions edged upward between 2021 and 2023, reversing earlier gains.

The council approved the admission as part of an administrative update to Climate Smart San Jose, the city’s emissions reduction plan. The update reflects city data showing greenhouse gas emissions stood at roughly 5 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent as of 2023 — about 0.2% higher than 2021 levels.

“That should be a wake-up call for all of us that our 2030 carbon neutrality goals are not just going to happen — that we’re going to have to keep working for them and find ways to push even further,” District 4 Councilmember David Cohen said at the Dec. 2 meeting.

A reversal after early gains

San Jose managed to cut overall emissions by approximately 16% between its 2017 benchmark year and 2021, according to city data. The city first adopted the 2030 carbon neutrality target in 2021, setting a more aggressive timeline than the Climate Smart program’s original goals. Despite the recent backslide, city officials said San Jose remains on track to meet those earlier, more modest targets.

Hard targets, wide gaps

One measure of the distance remaining: San Jose’s emissions reduction plan calls for electric vehicles to account for 79% of the city’s vehicle fleet. As of 2024, that figure stood at 8%, according to city data.

Zachary Struyk, assistant director of the San Jose Energy Department, said rising electricity costs, growing pains in nascent electrification industries, and the sharp decline in public transit ridership following the COVID-19 outbreak have all complicated the city’s efforts.

“It was an ambitious target,” Struyk told San José Spotlight. “No one else is doing carbon zero by 2030.”

The Energy Department is drafting proposals intended to speed emission reductions, Struyk said. Those proposals could go before the City Council as soon as next summer.

Advocates warn of faltering commitment

Local climate advocates said the data confirms concerns about weakening political will.

Linda Hutchins-Knowles, co-founder of Mothers Out Front Silicon Valley, a local climate advocacy group, said she was not surprised the city was falling behind pace but was alarmed that emissions had turned upward.

“I’m not surprised that we aren’t on track,” Hutchins-Knowles told San José Spotlight. “But what I am surprised about is that we’re actually going backwards.”

Hutchins-Knowles cited a September council vote that blocked two measures that would have established code requirements for electric heat pumps and electric-ready wiring in San Jose homes. The proposals failed on a 5-5 tie vote, with District 6 Councilmember Michael Mulcahy absent.

“I think the city has done a really good job at plucking that low-hanging fruit,” Hutchins-Knowles said. “Where we’re at now is having to really look at things that are not so easy to accomplish.”

Calvin Sridhara, a 10th-grader at Leland High School and a member of Silicon Valley Youth Climate Action, said the stalling progress lands hardest on younger residents.

“As a young person, this plateau feels especially serious because we will live with the consequences the longest,” Sridhara told San José Spotlight. “City leadership needs to recognize that their current pace is no longer enough and be willing to reengage with this 2030 zero emissions goal. It’s the right thing to do, even if the next steps are politically harder than the initial steps they’ve been taking.”

What has worked

The city has launched more than 40 initiatives targeting emissions under Climate Smart San Jose, officials said. They include a rebate program supporting the transition to electric home appliances, an e-bike deployment effort, and a pilot program installing electric vehicle charging stations.

The most consequential step, advocates and officials agreed, was the 2019 establishment of San Jose Clean Energy, a city-run electricity program that supplies hundreds of thousands of customers with power generated from 95% carbon-free sources.